Quiet weather for a while…

Piedra Road through Turkey Springs is definitely a winter wonderland – pic taken 1/14/2024

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Sunday – 14 Jan 2024 – 5:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 32 and this afternoon it was 35. The low temp this morning was 23.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 17mph and today it was 18mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
37	53 / 1987	4	-26 / 1963

Precipitation summary… Snow started earlier than I expected last night but snow amounts were in my forecast range.

Wolf Creek reported 8” this morning and another 2” by 2pm for a storm total of 10” – so far.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow totals from this morning ranged from 2.8” to 4”. A few Facebook reports were 5-6” mostly from places south along 84 like Echo Lake, Lower Blanco, Klutter Mountain, and Chama.

THANKS to everyone for your snow reports and pictures!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Those clouds moving through the Four Corners area are due to a trough. Spotty snowshowers are possible until that trough moves through this evening. — *Water vapor loop late this afternoon – Those clouds moving through the Four Corners area are due to a trough. Spotty snowshowers are possible until that trough moves through this evening.*

Radar this afternoon – Radar is picking up scattered snowshowers along the eastern Divide. Upper level flow is from the northwest towards the southeast. Northwest flow favors the northwest San Juans which is where most of the showers activity is.

Forecast Highlights…

*** A SPECIAL AVALANCHE ADVISORY is in effect for the mountains of Colorado. New snow and winds through the holiday weekend will increase avalanche danger statewide. The most dangerous avalanche conditions will develop Saturday afternoon into Sunday. ***

*** The WINTER STORM WARNING for the eastern San Juan Mountains will expire at 11pm tonight. ***

Sunday night to Monday afternoon… Moisture will continue to move through the region from the northwest. Weak pulses of energy could kick up spotty snowshowers, mostly over the mountains. Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas tonight and tomorrow morning.

Snow amounts…

Valley: up to a half inch in few lucky spots

Mountains: up to 2” in the lucky spots

Winds… Gusts Monday afternoon will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Lows Sunday night will be in the mid-single digits to low teens. Highs Monday afternoon will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Monday evening through Saturday… Ridging will build along the west coast and keep us mostly sunny and dry.

A weak trough with limited moisture will push a few more clouds through Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. A dusting of snow is possible along The Divide.

Winds… Peaks will be around 10mph each afternoon.

Temps… Lows Monday night will be negative mid-single digits to around 10. Highs Tuesday will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens. Temps will then warm to near seasonal averages. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the high single digits to high teens. Highs Friday and Saturday will range from near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the low to high teens.

*Euro 24-hour snowfall from Wednesday at 8am to Thursday at 8am – Our northern mountains could get a dusting, but the chance is slim.*

15-day outlook… The weather pattern will get more active starting around the 21^st, but I don’t see any big storms on the horizon.

*NBM 11-day snowfall shows 3” near Pagosa and up to 16” in our mountains. That’s too far out to trust specific amounts and timing so I just track the trends.*

Euro ensemble meteogram for 24-hour snowfall – This product is read left to right and times are in zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour snow amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. I want to see similar amounts and similar timing, like system 1 that is winding down now. The bottom section graphs the control and mean 24-hour amounts. I pay most attention to the mean. Now let’s look at the numbers… 1 is the system that’s winding down now. 2 is a weak chance for a few snowflakes Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning. 3 indicates a weak system trying to get organized next Sunday and Monday. Snowfall amounts range from zero to 5.5” with a mean of 2”. Currently it looks like a weak system, but we’ve got 7-8 days for the system to get better organized. 4 just indicates that the weather pattern could stay active but there is considerable uncertainty. — Euro ensemble meteogram for 24-hour snowfall – This product is read left to right and times are in zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour snow amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. I want to see similar amounts and similar timing, like system 1 that is winding down now. The bottom section graphs the control and mean 24-hour amounts. I pay most attention to the mean.

Now let’s look at the numbers… 1 is the system that’s winding down now. 2 is a weak chance for a few snowflakes Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning. 3 indicates a system trying to get organized next Sunday and Monday. Snowfall amounts range from zero to 5.5” with a mean of 2”. Currently it looks like a weak system, but we’ve got 7-8 days for this system to get better organized. 4 just indicates that the weather pattern could stay active but there is considerable uncertainty.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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