Snowpack is off to a rough start for Colorado
Sunday – 3 Dec 2023 – 10am
November Summary…
The average high for November is 49 and the average low is 16. The record high of 75 occurred on 2 November 1945. The record low of -18 occurred on 17 November 1907. Precip averages 1.62″ in November with 10″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.13″ of precip and 54.5″ of snow.
How did we do?…
Snowpack…
December Outlook…
The average high for December is 39 and the average low is 5. The record high of 70 occurred on 3 December 1906. The record low of -35 occurred on 19 December 1909. Precip averages 1.89″ in December with 22.6″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.42″ of precip and 78.7″ of snow.
The precip outlook on the right expects “equal chances” for average precip.
And what do we expect?
Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…
December Outlook: We are in a strong El’ Nino ENSO pattern. However, the polar front jet still has not migrated south. The primary storm track remains north of us. It is going to migrate but it is like waiting for the tea kettle. Looks like we will only have a few weak systems the first part of December. The MJO is finally showing signs of life after being weak for several months. It should be in our area about the 3rd week in December. I’ve seen a fully white flock of ptarmigan and an ermine and the elk have had an unusual migration pattern this winter. I am forecasting for average snowfall and temperatures in December.
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!
And if you’re curious about us, check out this excellent video by Matt Martin. We are humbled and honored that he used his talent and time to spotlight Pagosa Weather!
- Shawn
3 Responses
Shawn and Arlene,
Is it fair to say that the strong El Niño this winter is the “culprit “ behind the winter December- March precipitation amounts in the SW portion of our State ?
Mike
Hi Mike, the El Niño only became a player this summer. We were still in La Niña during December to March. However the QBO was westerly which seems to negate the effects of La Niña. Currently there are a few universities investigating if there was more to it given the weather in California.
-Arleen
Arlene,
Thanks for clarifying . I should have been more precise in my question about the El Niño. I meant to ask if it could have an impact on the December through March precip forecast.
Mike