Lots of sun and warmer this week…

Susie scarecrow is happy about the snow!  – Pic taken 12/1/2023

Susie scarecrow is happy about the snow!  – Pic taken 12/1/2023

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Saturday – 2 Dec 2023 – 11:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 32. The low this morning was 11.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 25mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4463 / 190610-10 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek reported another 12” of snow this morning for a storm total of 16”. Below are CoCoRaHS snowfall totals for the last 24 hours and 2-day storm totals.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports for Archuleta County range from 1” to 3”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports for Archuleta County range from 1” to 3”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day storm totals range from 1.9” to 5.5”.
CoCoRaHS 2-day storm totals range from 1.9” to 5.5”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Moisture is streaming into northern Colorado from the northwest and there’s a bunch more upstream.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Moisture is streaming into northern Colorado from the northwest and there’s a bunch more upstream.
Radar this morning at 9:24am – Radar isn’t showing anything in our area and is hardly showing anything over the northern half of Colorado. Based on ski resort cams and area surface observations, it is snowing over much of the central and northern Colorado mountains. Moisture and precip will stream into northern Colorado over the next few days.
Radar this morning at 9:24am – Radar isn’t showing anything in our area and is hardly showing anything over the northern half of Colorado. Based on ski resort cams and area surface observations, it is snowing over much of the central and northern Colorado mountains. Moisture and precip will stream into northern Colorado over the next few days.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Warmer, sunny, and dry next week. ***

Rest of Saturday and Sunday… Moist northwest flow will stream into northern Cololorado, turning on the snow machine for the central and northern mountains, especially the Steamboat area. In our area, we’ll see spotty snow showers along and on the other side of The Divide, and over the south San Juans into Sunday morning.

Additional Snow amounts:

Pagosa area: a dusting in a few lucky spots

Chromo/Chama area: up to an inch closer to the mountains

Mountains: 1-3” with the south San Juans favored

Winds… Peak winds will be in the 20-25mph range on Saturday and then in the 15-20mph range on Sunday.

Temps… Highs Saturday will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens. Highs Sunday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be 0 to 10.

NWS snow forecast shows up to 3” in the south San Juans. Check out the Steamboat area: 12-18” in town and 3-4 feet in the Park Range!
NWS snow forecast shows up to 3” in the south San Juans.
Check out the Steamboat area: 12-18” in town and 3-4 feet in the Park Range!

Monday through Friday afternoon… The ridge will continue to build through Wednesday leading to lots of sun and a warming trend. We’ll see a few more clouds Friday as the ridge weakens and moves to our east, but we’ll stay dry and warm.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph on Monday, and 5-10mph on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Friday afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday highs will be in the  high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

GFS 5-day precip anomaly shows 0.43” less than average for us and over an inch above average for the Steamboat area.  The purple arrows highlight the moist northwest flow.
GFS 5-day precip anomaly shows 0.43” less than average for us and over an inch above average for the Steamboat area.  The purple arrows highlight the moist northwest flow.

The next system?… The forecast models are hinting at another storm roughly Friday night to Sunday afternoon. Some forecast models indicate a decent storm while others think it will be weak or miss us.  Let’s cheer for those models showing a decent storm!

My next forecast post will be Monday morning. And I hope to get the November Summary/December Outlook posted today.  I’m still waiting for two products.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Hello Dave! That product is produced by the Grand Junction NWS when significant travel impacts are expected. I agree that it is a very helpful product and have provided them encouraging feedback. Let’s hope they provide it more often. Thanks for following Pagosa Weather!

  2. A week or so ago your forecast included an NWS graphic showing snowfall amounts along US 160. Is that a regular NWS product? If so, could you provide the link to where NWS posts said graphic? We’re headed east for a bit on Monday and that corridor-specific forecast would be handy.

    Thanks for your efforts!

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