Snowshowers will persist today…

Roads across the region are slick this morning.  – Screen capture of Wolf Creek Pass cam 12/1/2023 at 9:21am

Roads across the region are slick this morning.  – Screen capture of Wolf Creek Pass cam 12/1/2023 at 9:21am

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Friday – 1 Dec 2023 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 40. The low this morning was 29.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 10mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4465 / 190610-12 / 1975

Precipitation summary… So far, snow has favored the southern half of the county. Wolf Creek reported 4” of new snow this morning.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports for Archuleta County range from 0.3” to 3”. The snow winner was Lisa in Loma Linda! Note that the Durango area got 1-3” and a dusting fell down towards Aztec.  Roads in the region are slick this morning.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports for Archuleta County range from 0.3” to 3”. The snow winner was Lisa in Loma Linda!
Note that the Durango area got 1-3” and a dusting fell down towards Aztec.  Roads in the region are slick this morning.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough over western UT will move through our area this evening. Flow ahead of the trough is from the west. Flow will switch to northwest behind the trough tonight. It’s a disorganized pattern that doesn’t favor us.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough over western UT will move through our area this evening. Flow ahead of the trough is from the west. Flow will switch to northwest behind the trough tonight. It’s a disorganized pattern that doesn’t favor us.
Radar this morning at 7:50am – Radar is picking up a few showers over the south San Juans and down towards Chama. Radar isn’t picking up light snow falling across the area. The areas of precip over northern UT and the Pacific NW are a good indicator of the moist air moving towards northern Colorado.
Radar this morning at 7:50am – Radar is picking up a few showers over the south San Juans and down towards Chama. Radar isn’t picking up light snow falling across the area.
The areas of precip over northern UT and the Pacific NW are a good indicator of the moist air moving towards northern Colorado.

Forecast Highlights…

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the South San Juan Mountains for 5-10” of snow with higher amounts on south or southwest facing slopes.  It’s valid until 11pm Friday. This advisory does not include Pagosa Springs. ***

*** Warmer, sunny, and dry next week. ***

Friday through Saturday night… Today moist, upper-level flow ahead of the trough is from the west.  In our area, this will favor the southeast part of Archuleta County and Chama. Flow will switch to northwest tonight behind the trough which will cut most of our precip off.

Saturday moist northwest flow sets up, turning on the snow machine for the central and northern mountains, especially the Steamboat area. In our area, we’ll see spotty snow showers mostly along, and on the other side of The Divide into Sunday morning. 

Timing… Off and on snow showers will persist into Friday night. For the valley, accumulating snow will be done by midnight tonight. Spotty snow showers will linger into Sunday morning over the mountains, but additional snow accumulations will be minimal.

Additional Snow amounts by tomorrow morning:

Pagosa area: 1-2”

Chromo/Chama area: 3-6”

Mountains: 3-6”

Winds… Peak winds will be in the 20-25mph range.

Temps… Highs Friday will be 30 to 35 and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Highs Saturday will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows will be in the low single digits to low teens.

NWS snowfall indicates 1-2” for Pagosa and 4-6” for Wolf Creek. Higher amounts are expected for the south San Juans, Chromo, and Chama areas.
NWS snowfall indicates 1-2” for Pagosa and 4-6” for Wolf Creek. Higher amounts are expected for the south San Juans, Chromo, and Chama areas.
Zoomed in view of NWS snowfall forecast – It shows 1” for Pagosa, 4” for Chama, and 5” for Wolf Creek.
Zoomed in view of NWS snowfall forecast – It shows 1” for Pagosa, 4” for Chama, and 5” for Wolf Creek.

Sunday through Thursday… Sunday clouds will decrease, and snow showers will end over the mountains as drier northwest flow takes over. The ridge will continue to build through Wednesday leading to lots of sun and a warming trend. We’ll see a few more clouds Thursday as the ridge weakens and moves to our east, but we’ll stay dry and warm.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 15-20mph on Sunday, 10-15mph on Monday, and 5-10mph on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be 0 to 10. Monday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday highs will be in the  high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

I plan to do the November Summary/December Outlook later today. My next forecast post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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