Odds and totals for snow on Friday and Saturday are increasing…

Sunset storm

A few afternoon poppers developed yesterday…this one to the south of town was in a perfect place to catch the colors of the sunset! © 2023-Mark Langford

Tuesday 11-21-2023. 9:45am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 47 degrees and the low this morning was 19 degrees. Winds gusted to 13mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 18% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary:  A few lone cells dropped 0.10 inches of snow near downtown yesterday and 0.07 inches of rainfall south of town along the Navajo River. Wolf Creek Ski Area reported a trace of snow yesterday.

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COCORAHS 24hr snowfall reports.
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COCORAHS 24hr liquid precipitation reports.

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 20th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4666/ 198914-7/ 1985

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

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Travel forecast graphic courtesy of the Grand Junction NWS.

Forecast discussion…

While winter storm watches and warnings have not been issued yet, please note that travel on Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning could be challenging, especially at Wolf Creek Pass! We will post watches and warnings as they are issued. As we near this snow event, forecast snow totals will be fluctuating, so please check out our daily reports for any changes.

High pressure keeps us dry through early Thursday, before a low pressure develops to our west, switching our upper-level winds to the SW and giving us a good chance for snow from early Friday morning through Saturday. The latest model runs are not only increasing our odds for snow, but snow totals as well. Snow levels will stay at or below 7000 with this next system, so any precipitation should fall as snow. Look for seasonal temperatures for most of this week, turning colder on Friday and Saturday, with highs only reaching the 30’s.

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A low pressure will form to our west, then move east from Friday-Saturday. That will switch our upper-level winds into the SW and increase our snow chances from early Friday-Saturday.
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The latest NBM model is forecasting 8.2 inches of snow from Thursday night through Saturday.
Euro
The latest Euro model is forecasting 10 inches of snow from Thursday night through Saturday.
GFS
The latest GFS model is forecasting 7.8 inches of snow from Thursday night through Saturday.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and 20’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 20mph.

Thursday night: Cloudy with a chance for snow starting around midnight. Lows in the 20’s. 0-1 inches of snow for the valley and 1-2 inches for the mountains.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a good chance for snow. Lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. 1-3 inches of snow for the valley and 3-6 inches for the mountains. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 20mph.

Friday night-Saturday morning: A good chance for snow, heavy at times. 3-5 inches for the valley and 5-10 inches for the mountains.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and highs in the low to mid 30’s. 1-2 inches of snow for the valley and 2-4 inches for the mountains. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 20mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with lows in the single digits to low teens and highs in the mid to upper 30’s. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 20mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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