A tiny chance for a few flying flakes this afternoon…

Pagosa Peak

A hearty hiker along Coyote Loop Trail braves the cold this morning! © 2023-Mark Langford

Monday 11-20-2023. 9:30am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 40 degrees and the low this morning was 25 degrees. Winds gusted to 8mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 78% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: We got close to having a winner for our “First One Inch” contest, but the most that we could find on our snow boards (Mine about a mile north of Hatcher Lake and Shawn and Arleen’s place) was 0.90 inches of snow. COCORAHS snowfall reports ranged from a trace to 0.90. Liquid measurements ranged from 0.06 to 0.24 inches. Wolf Creek Ski Area reports 4 inches from this storm.

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COCORAHS 24hr snowfall reports.
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COCORAHS 24hr liquid precipitation reports.

Pagosa Springs historical data for November 20th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4663/ 191514-7/ 1985

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

A weak piece of energy will move through our area this afternoon, producing a few snow showers, with no accumulation expected. High pressure keeps us dry through early Thursday, before a cut-off low develops to our west, switching our upper-level winds to the SW and giving us a decent chance for snow from early Friday morning through Saturday evening. Snow levels will stay at or below 7000 with this next system, so any precipitation should fall as snow. Look for seasonal temperatures for most of this week, turning colder on Friday and Saturday, with highs only reaching the 30’s.

ecmwf deterministic conus z500 barbs 0848800
A cutoff low is forecast to develop to our west on Thursday, then moves east from Friday-Saturday. That will increase our snow chances from early Friday-Saturday.
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The latest NBM model is forecasting 4.8 inches of snow from Thursday night through Saturday.

5-Day Forecast…

Today: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 20mph. A slight chance for some snow showers this afternoon…no accumulation expected.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with lows in the teens and 20’s and highs in the upper 40’s to low 50’s. Winds SW 5-10mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 40’s. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 20mph.

Thursday night: Cloudy with a chance for snow starting in the early hours of Friday morning. Lows in the 20’s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with a good chance for snow. Lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Lows in the upper teens to low 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 30’s.

Early snow forecast for Thursday night through Saturday: 2-4 inches for the valley and 5-10 inches for the mountains.

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