Fantastic fall weather through Wednesday and then a more active pattern…

A salute to our fellow Veterans!

A salute to our fellow Veterans!

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Saturday – 11 Nov 2023 – 9:30am

Thanks for attending our Winter Weather presentation! And thanks for the good discussion!
Thanks for attending our Winter Weather presentation! And thanks for the good discussion!

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 48. The low this morning was 19. The cold spots dipped into the low teens this morning. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 30%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 18mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5270 / 198917-10 / 1940

Precipitation summary… A few spotty snowflakes fell Thursday and Friday, but they didn’t amount to anything.  Wolf Creek got around an inch.

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire have been less active.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The jet stream, yellow arrows, is flowing towards BC and WA and then splitting.  Storm energy is going north into BC while drier air is spilling over the ridge towards the southeast.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The jet stream, yellow arrows, is flowing towards BC and WA and then splitting.  Storm energy is going north into BC while drier air is spilling over the ridge towards the southeast.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Dry through Wednesday. ***

*** More active weather pattern the second half of next week. ***

Saturday through Wednesday… Ridging is currently in control. The ridge will weaken and move to our east by late Tuesday. We’ll see a lot of blue sky and sun through Monday and then clouds will increase Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be light, and we’ll stay dry. Starting tomorrow, temps will be about 5 degrees above normal.

Winds… Each afternoon winds will peak around 15mph.

Temps… Saturday highs will be in the high 40s to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Wednesday night through Sunday… A low-pressure system will spin off the California coast Wednesday through Friday and then start moving east over the weekend. It will push pieces of energy through our area causing periods of showers.

A long southwest fetch means this system will have warmer air and higher snow levels. I think snow levels will be mostly above 9,000ft, but could briefly drop down to 7,500-8,000ft in the early morning hours each day.

Rough first guess snow amounts:

Valley below 8,500ft: 0-1”

Mountains: 5-10”

* At this point, my forecast confidence in the details – timing and precip amounts – is low.  I’ll dial specifics in as the data gets better. *

NBM total precip to next Sunday at 11pm shows 0.45” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.2” in our mountains. Total precip amounts for the ensemble models for Pagosa: Euro 0.96” – GFS 0.71” – Canadian 0.87”. At this point I’m leaning towards the lower amounts indicated by the NBM.
NBM total precip to next Sunday at 11pm shows 0.45” in the Pagosa area and up to 1.2” in our mountains.

Total precip amounts for the ensemble models for Pagosa: Euro 0.96” – GFS 0.71” – Canadian 0.87”. At this point I’m leaning towards the lower amounts indicated by the NBM.
 NBM total snowfall to next Sunday at 11pm shows 0.3” in the Pagosa area, 1.1” for Chama, and up to 13” in our mountains.
 NBM total snowfall to next Sunday at 11pm shows 0.3” in the Pagosa area, 1.1” for Chama, and up to 13” in our mountains.

My next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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