Great weather through Wednesday – More clouds and scattered showers this weekend…

Wolf Creek Ski Area viewed from Lobo Overlook – 11/10/2023

Wolf Creek Ski Area viewed from Lobo Overlook – 11/10/2023

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Monday – 13 Nov 2023 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 60. The low this morning was 23. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 11%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 16mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5168 / 199017-11 / 1950

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Fire updates…

Below are the links to the Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire. There has been more smoke from the Trail Springs fire the last couple of days due to low humidity in the afternoons.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this evening – The ridge is to our west and won’t move much over the next few days.  The low will wobble off the coast until this weekend when it finally moves east. Those are all mid and high clouds to our west with no precip.
Water vapor satellite this evening – The ridge is to our west and won’t move much over the next few days.  The low will wobble off the coast until this weekend when it finally moves east.
Those are all mid and high clouds to our west with no precip.

There is nothing on radar in our area this evening.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Dry through Wednesday. ***

*** Spotty mountain showers Thursday and Friday. ***

*** Better chance for showers Friday night through Sunday. ***

Monday night through Wednesday… Ridging is currently in control. The ridge will weaken and move to our east by Wednesday afternoon. Mid and high clouds will increase Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be light, and we’ll stay dry. Temps will be about 5 degrees above normal.

Winds… Each afternoon winds will peak around 15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

Thursday and Friday… The ridge will be to our east and upper-level southwest flow will slowly push more moisture into our area. We’ll see more clouds and a few scattered showers, mostly over the mountains. The chance for precip will increase Friday night.

Snow levels on Thursday will be around 9,500ft and then bounce between 9,000ft and 9,500ft on Friday. 

Snow will be spotty and won’t amount to much: up to 1” in the mountains and a few flakes above 8,500ft in the valley.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs on Thursday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.  Highs on Friday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning… The low-pressure system off the California coast will finally move east over the weekend. Unfortunately it will weaken as it moves through our area.

Snow levels will hover around above 9,000ft on Saturday and then around 8,000ft most of Sunday. The snow level will drop to 7,000ft through Sunday evening, but moisture will be decreasing.

Scattered snow showers will linger through Monday morning, mostly over the mountains.

Snow amounts:

Valley below 8,000ft: a dusting

Valley above 8,000ft: up to 1”

Mountains: 5-10”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low 30s to high 30s. Lows Sunday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

NBM total precip to Monday at 11am shows 0.38” in the Pagosa area and up to 1” in our mountains. Total precip amounts for the ensemble models for Pagosa: Euro 0.55” – GFS 0.17” – Canadian 0.37”. The trend for all of the models is for less precip – booo hisss
NBM total precip to Monday at 11am shows 0.38” in the Pagosa area and up to 1” in our mountains. Total precip amounts for the ensemble models for Pagosa: Euro 0.55” – GFS 0.17” – Canadian 0.37”.
The trend for all of the models is for less precip – booo hisss
 NBM total snowfall to Monday at 11am shows 0.2” in the Pagosa area, 0.9” for Chama, and up to 10” in our mountains.
 NBM total snowfall to Monday at 11am shows 0.2” in the Pagosa area, 0.9” for Chama, and up to 10” in our mountains.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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