A few spotty snow showers through Thursday afternoon…

It was great to see snowflakes falling gently out of the sky this morning! Unfortunately it only lasted about 5 minutes. – 11/9/2023 at 8am just north of Turkey Springs

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Thursday – 9 Nov 2023 – 9:00am

*** Come check out our Winter Outlook presentation! ***

When: Thursday, 9 Nov, at 6:30pm

Where: County Extension auditorium at the fairgrounds

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 52. The low this morning was 26. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 20%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 29mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
52	69 / 1973	18	-4 / 1948

Precipitation summary… There has been no measurable precip reported recently.

Fire updates…

The Trail Springs fire, Mill Creek 2 fire, and Bear Creek fire have been less active.

https://www.facebook.com/sanjuannationalforest

https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-trail-springs-fire

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop this morning – The upper-level trough is almost stationary over our area. It will finally move through later today. There isn’t much left of it, but it will cause spotty snowshowers, mostly over the mountains.

Radar this morning – Most of the showers in our area aren’t showing up on radar. That band of showers on the radar lines up nicely with satellite. Individual cells are moving towards the northeast while the band is nearly stationary.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Spotty snow showers today, mostly over the mountains. Wolf Creek Pass could be slick today. ***

*** Dry Friday through Wednesday. ***

*** More active weather pattern starting the second half of next week. ***

Thursday… An upper-level trough is slowly moving through the area. There isn’t much moisture left but we’ll see scattered snow showers into the afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 8,500: a dusting in the lucky spots

Mountains: 1-2”

Winds… Thursday peak winds will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

*The NWS snow forecast shows a trace over the higher parts of the valley and 1-2” in our mountains.*

Friday through Wednesday… Initially ridging will build over the region and then the flow will become more zonal (west to east). This means no interesting storms are expected during this period. We’ll see hardly any clouds Sunday and Monday. The other days will be partly cloudy. We’ll stay dry.

Winds… Each afternoon winds will peak around 15mph.

Temps… Friday highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Saturday highs will be in the high 40s to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Sunday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.

The next system?… The forecast models continue to point towards a more active pattern starting the second half of next week.

Euro ensemble 15-day precip for Pagosa (top) and Wolf Creek Pass (bottom) – The weather pattern starts getting more active starting around Thursday next week. By the end of this period, the ensemble forecast model expects 6” of snow for Pagosa and 12” for Wolf Creek. It’s too early to trust specific amounts. At this point I track trends and I like the trend.

My next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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