Pagosa Weather OCTOBER SUMMARY & November Outlook

Drought conditions are considered “severe” for most of Archuleta County

Thursday – 2 Nov 2023 – 7pm

October Summary…

The average high for October is 63 and the average low is 26. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 October 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 October 1910. Precip averages 2.27″ in October with 4″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.39″ of precip and 26.7″ of snow.

How did we do?

**Temps across Archuleta County were 3-5 degrees above average**

**Precip over the southern part of Archuleta County was 11-20% of average while precip over the northern part of the county was 20-30% of average**

***October precip totals range from 0.35″ to 1.07″ with an overall average of 0.68″ – much lower than the climatological average of 2.27″.***

Wolf Creek reported 10" of snow from a storm on 30 Oct. Unfortunately they were well below their average of 26.7". — ***Wolf Creek reported 10″ of snow from a storm on 30 Oct. Unfortunately they were well below their average of 26.7″.***

Drought, River Flow, and Lake Levels…

Drought conditions haven't changed much of over southwest CO in the last month, but they did improve over the much of the southern plains. — ***Drought conditions haven’t changed much of over southwest CO in the last month, but they did improve over the much of the southern plains.***

River flow… Dark blue is this year and brown is last year. San Juan River flow, top, for October this year has ranged from 39cfs to 282cfs, below last year's flow. Piedra River flow, bottom, ranged from 40cfs to 144cfs this year, also less than last year's flow. — ***River flow… Dark blue is this year and brown is last year.***
***San Juan River flow, top, for October this year has ranged from 39cfs to 282cfs, below last year’s flow.***
***Piedra River flow, bottom, ranged from 40cfs to 144cfs this year, also less than last year’s flow.***

On the left are upper Colorado Basin lake levels as of 31 October. On the right is 30 September.
Overall there has been nearly a 2% drop. — ***On the left are upper Colorado Basin lake levels as of 31 October. On the right is 30 September.***
***Overall there has been nearly a 2% drop.***

November Outlook…

The average high for October is 49 and the average low is 16. The record high of 75 occurred on 2 November 1945. The record low of -18 occurred on 17 November 1907. Precip averages 1.62″ in November with 11.6″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.13″ of precip and 54.5″ of snow.

The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for November on the left expects above average temps. The precip outlook on the right expects "equal chances" for average precip. — ***The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for November on the left expects above average temps.***
***The precip outlook on the right expects “equal chances” for average precip.***

***The Euro ensemble, on the left, expects 1.15″ of precip near Pagosa Springs for November while the GFS ensemble, on the right, expects 1.42″. Both models expect less than the average of 1.62″.***

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she expects…

November will see less than average precipitation with warmer temperatures. The first half of the month will be dry outside of a short lived system the 2nd week of the month. The second half of the month will be much more active with a number of systems slipping through our area looking more like an El Nino winter. Unfortunately, it will be a too little, too late to make for an average month. We should start to see a transition to more wintry weather just in time for Thanksgiving.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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