Rain odds have almost gone poof in the wind!

Windy

Wednesday 10-11-2023. 9:15am update.

The past…

As of post time, the site I use for highs and lows was down, but the low this morning at the airfield was 34 degrees and some of us in the cold spots saw mid 20’s!

Precipitation summary: Only trace amounts of precipitation were reported in a few locations yesterday.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 11th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6880/ 19502815/ 1913

Screenshot 2023 10 11 090109
A strong low pressure and associated trough-cold front will move through our area tonight, giving us a tiny chance for rain and a really good chance for wind!

Forecast discussion…

Look for a very windy afternoon ahead of a strong low pressure that will skirt to our north dropping an associated trough-cold front through our area tonight and giving us a slight chance for rain. Even though the snow level will drop to around 7100 feet, precipitation is forecast to end before the levels drop. We could see wind gusts of 40mph this afternoon and evening. Wolf Creek Pass could see blowing snow with wind gusts of 50-60mph tonight! Unfortunately, it looks like most of the precipitation will stay to our north and we will mainly see just wind and colder temperatures.

Winds
Winds could gust over 40mph this afternoon and evening!
Screenshot 2023 10 11 081736
The latest Euro model runs thinks we will see 0.14 of an inch of rainfall over the next 24-hrs.
GFS
The latest GFS model runs thinks we will see 0.02 of an inch of rainfall over the next 24-hrs.
HRRR
The latest HRRR model runs thinks we will see zero rainfall over the next 24-hrs.
NBM 2
The latest NBM model runs thinks we will see zero rainfall over the next 24-hrs.

Special Annular Eclipse Forecast and discussion: An annular eclipse will be happening this Saturday morning and, weather-pending, people in Pagosa Springs will be able to see a partial version of the eclipse at 10:35am. From NASA: “This event occurs when the Moon passes directly in front of the Sun, but appears too small to completely cover the Sun’s surface – resulting in what appears as a ring of fire in the sky. It’s also known as an annular solar eclipse. Everyone in the contiguous 48 states will have the opportunity to see at least a partial eclipse.”

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My favorite links for eclipse info:

Eclipse Path of Annular Solar Eclipse on October 14, 2023 (timeanddate.com)

2023 Annular Eclipse – NASA Science

Eclipse
The full annular eclipse path is west and south of Pagosa Springs.
Eclipse 2
Times for the eclipse and what we will see in Pagosa Springs.

As of this post time, the models are still all over the place, trying to predict whether it will be cloudy or not! Below are four models and their cloud predictions for Saturday.

NBM clouds
The latest NBM model is predicting partly cloudy skies for the eclipse on Saturday.
GFS Clouds 3
The latest GFS model is predicting a clear day for the eclipse on Saturday.
Canada clouds
The latest Canadian model is predicting a mostly cloudy day for the eclipse on Saturday.
Euro clouds 1
The latest Euro model is predicting a clear day for the eclipse on Saturday.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for showers during the day and evening with highs in the low to mid 60’s. Winds SW 20-25, with gusts to 40mph. Wolf Creek Pass will see snow showers tonight with winds gusting to 50-60mph…travel over the pass will be tricky! Rain totals 0-0.05.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in low to mid 50’s. Winds NW 15-20mph, with gusts to 30mph. Cold spots could see lows in the mid 20’s.

Friday: Mostly sunny with lows in the mid to upper 20’s and highs in low to mid 50’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph. Cold spots could see lows in the lower 20’s to upper teens.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in low to mid 60’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph. Cold spots could see lows in the lower 20’s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph. Cold spots could see lows in the mid 20’s.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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