Windy Wednesday and Thursday with a tiny chance for some flying flakes!

Peak Storm

I captured this storm behind Pagosa Peak at sunset on Sunday…our skies up here are always entertaining! © 2023-Mark Langford

Tuesday 10-10-2023. 9am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 70 degrees and the low this morning was 33 degrees. Some of us in the cold spots saw temps in the upper 20’s this morning. Winds gusted to 18mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 15% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize!

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 10th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6784/ 19102716/ 1975

Screenshot 2023 10 10 074825
A strong low pressure and associated cold front will move through our area on Wednesday night, giving us a tiny chance for rain and some snow showers.

Forecast discussion…

Today will be the last day of tranquil weather for a few days as strong low pressure off the Pacific NW coast and associated cold front moves through our area on Wednesday night, giving us a slight chance for rain and possible snow showers as the snow level drops to around 7100 feet. Unfortunately, it looks like most of the precipitation will stay to our north and we will mainly see wind and colder temperatures. Winds will start ramping up this afternoon ahead of the system, then peak on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the front and trough move through. We could see wind gusts of 40mph on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Wolf Creek Pass could see blowing snow with wind gusts of 50-60mph on Wednesday night! Below are two of the models that are predicting measurable precipitation for us on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Euro
The latest Euro model runs thinks we will see 0.10 of an inch of rainfall on Wednesday night.
Euro snow
The latest Euro model runs thinks we could see 0.20 of an inch of snowfall on Wednesday night.
Screenshot 2023 10 10 075509
The latest GFS model runs thinks we will see 0.05 of an inch of rainfall on Wednesday night.
GFS Snow
The latest GFS model runs thinks we could see 0.20 of an inch of snowfall on Wednesday night.

Special Annular Eclipse Forecast and discussion: An annular eclipse will be happening this Saturday morning and, weather-pending, people in Pagosa Springs will be able to see a partial version of the eclipse at 10:35am. From NASA: “This event occurs when the Moon passes directly in front of the Sun, but appears too small to completely cover the Sun’s surface – resulting in what appears as a ring of fire in the sky. It’s also known as an annular solar eclipse. Everyone in the contiguous 48 states will have the opportunity to see at least a partial eclipse.”

The STAR Library Network (STAR Net), managed by the Space Science Institute, is offering free eclipse glasses along with supporting information, training, and ideas for activities to conduct at eclipse events at U.S. public libraries. Learn more on the Solar Eclipse Activities for Libraries (SEAL) website. Our Ruby Sisson library is giving out 2 free pair of eclipse sunglasses for each family.

My favorite links for eclipse info:

Eclipse Path of Annular Solar Eclipse on October 14, 2023 (timeanddate.com)

2023 Annular Eclipse – NASA Science

Eclipse
The full annular eclipse path is west and south of Pagosa Springs.
Eclipse 2
Times for the eclipse and what we will see in Pagosa Springs.

As of this post time, the models are still all over the place, trying to predict whether it will be cloudy or not! Below are four models and their cloud predictions for Saturday.

image
The latest NBM model is predicting mostly sunny skies for the eclipse on Saturday.
gfs deterministic newmexico total cloud 7306400
The latest GFS model is now predicting a clear day for the eclipse on Saturday.
gem all newmexico total cloud 7306400
The latest Canadian model is predicting a partly cloudy day for the eclipse on Saturday.
ecmwf deterministic newmexico total cloud 7306400
The latest Euro model is predicting a mostly sunny day for the eclipse on Saturday.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for showers during the day and evening with lows in the 30’s and highs in the low to mid 60’s. Winds SW 20-25, with gusts to 40mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s. There is a chance for some brief snow showers overnight and Thursday morning. Wolf Creek Pass will see snow showers Wednesday night with winds gusting to 50-60mph…travel over the pass will be tricky! Rain totals 0-0.05 Snow totals: 0-.20 

Thursday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in low to mid 50’s. Winds NW 15-20mph, with gusts to 30mph. Cold spots could see lows in the lower 20’s.

Friday: Mostly sunny with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in low to mid 50’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph. Cold spots could see lows in the lower 20’s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in low to mid 60’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph. Cold spots could see lows in the lower 20’s.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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