Nice for a couple of days, then turning windy and colder…

Storm

I captured some cool lightning bolts from a night storm last Monday (October 2nd) that moved over Pagosa Peak. © 2023-Mark Langford

Sunday 10-08-2023. 10am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 70 degrees and the low this morning was 37 degrees. Some of us in the cold spots saw frost and a freeze. Winds gusted to 18mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 22% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: A random shower moved through around 8pm last night near Hatcher Lake. I actually won the rain lottery and saw BB-size hail for a few seconds at our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake.

Screenshot 2023 10 08 094305
24hr COCORAHS reports. A random shower moved through around 8pm last night near Hatcher Lake.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 8th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6885/ 19102812/ 1992

Screenshot 2023 10 08 093414
A strong low pressure and associated cold front will move through our area on Wednesday night, giving us a tiny chance for rain and some snow showers. Unfortunately, it looks like this system will mainly be delivering wind and colder temperatures.

Forecast discussion…

Look for seasonal weather and mostly sunny skies through Tuesday before a strong low pressure and associated cold front moves through our area on Wednesday night, giving us a tiny chance for rain and some snow showers. Unfortunately, it looks like this system will mainly be delivering wind and colder temperatures. Winds will start ramping up on Tuesday afternoon ahead of the system, then peak on Wednesday and Wednesday night as the front and trough move through. We could see wind gusts of 40mph on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Special Annular Eclipse Forecast and discussion: An annular eclipse will be happening this Saturday morning and, weather-pending, people in Pagosa Springs will be able to see a partial version of the eclipse at 10:35am. From NASA: “This event occurs when the Moon passes directly in front of the Sun, but appears too small to completely cover the Sun’s surface – resulting in what appears as a ring of fire in the sky. It’s also known as an annular solar eclipse. Everyone in the contiguous 48 states will have the opportunity to see at least a partial eclipse.”

The STAR Library Network (STAR Net), managed by the Space Science Institute, is offering free eclipse glasses along with supporting information, training, and ideas for activities to conduct at eclipse events at U.S. public libraries. Learn more on the Solar Eclipse Activities for Libraries (SEAL) website. Our Ruby Sisson library is giving out 2 free pair of eclipse sunglasses for each family.

My favorite links for eclipse info:

Eclipse Path of Annular Solar Eclipse on October 14, 2023 (timeanddate.com)

2023 Annular Eclipse – NASA Science

Eclipse
The full annular eclipse path is west and south of Pagosa Springs.
Eclipse 2
Times for the eclipse and what we will see in Pagosa Springs.

As of this post time, the models are all over the place, trying to predict whether it will be cloudy or not! Below are three models and their cloud predictions for Saturday.

GFS Clouds 2
The latest GFS model is predicting a cloudy day for the eclipse on Saturday.
Canadian Clouds
The latest Canadian model is predicting a clear day for the eclipse on Saturday.
EURO Clouds
The latest Euro model is predicting a partly cloudy day for the eclipse on Saturday.
NBM 1
The latest 5-day NBM rainfall forecast…none of the models are forecasting rain for us this week.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny with lows in the 30’s and highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy and breezy in the afternoon with lows in the 30’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 15-20, with gusts to 25mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for showers during the day and evening with lows in the 30’s and highs in the low to mid 60’s. Winds SW 20-25, with gusts to 40mph. Cold spots could see lows in the upper 20’s. Rain totals 0-0.05 There is a chance for some brief snow showers overnight and Thursday morning. Wolf Creek Pass will see snow showers Wednesday night with winds gusting to over 40mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in low to mid 50’s. Winds NW 10-15, with gusts to 25mph. Cold spots could see lows in the lower 20’s.

Friday: Mostly sunny with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in low to mid 50’s. Winds SW 5-10, with gusts to 15mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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