Brilliant blue Pagosa sky over Colorfest this morning – Pic taken 9/16/2023
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Saturday – 16 Sep 2023 – 3:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 58 and the low this morning was 40. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 62%.
Mark had a low of 31.5 just north of Hatcher Lake. Most of us were in the mid to high 30s this morning.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 9mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 74 | 87 / 1956 | 36 | 25 / 1971 |
Precipitation summary… Most of the county got good rain yesterday. I was surprised to see a few folks report less than 0.10”. Check out the 7-day precip totals below.
The Piedra went from a low of 16.5cfs to a peak of 111cfs. In spite of the damp week, the Piedra River never got back up to its median of 125cfs.
Fire updates…
Quartz Ridge Fire link
Bear Creek Fire link
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.
Forecast Highlights…
*** Cold spots in valley will flirt with freezing temps each morning this week. ***
Rest of today through Tuesday… A ridge of high pressure will slowly weaken and move east. We’ll see a lot of sun and have pleasant seasonal temps. There is a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm Monday and Tuesday afternoons, mostly over the mountains. I expect most of us to stay dry.
Winds… Winds each morning will be light and variable. Beginning around 11am each day winds will increase into the 10-20mph range out of the southwest.
Temps… Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. The cold spots will flirt with lows near freezing each morning.
Wednesday… Behind the trough, upper-level winds will increase and drier air will move in. We’ll be partly cloudy, dry, and breezy.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. The cold spots will flirt freezing temps each morning.
Thursday and Friday… A stronger system will miss us to the north. We’ll see a few more clouds, a spotty shower or thunderstorm, and gusty winds.
Winds… Gusts on Thursday will be in the 15-25mph range. They’ll increase Friday into the 20-30mph range.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. The cold spots will flirt with freezing temps.
In the upper left, the NBM expects 0.07” for Pagosa. In the upper right, the Euro ensemble shows 0.48”. In the bottom left, the GFS ensemble shows 0.12”. In the bottom right, the Canadian ensemble shows 0.47”.
It’s interesting that the American forecast models hardly expect anything while the foreign forecast models are more optimistic. At this time, I’m leaning towards the American models and don’t expect much precip. Next Saturday I’ll verify these models against what actually happened. Verification is a constant part of the forecast process.
Mark will take over tomorrow.
– Shawn
2 Responses
Brilliant blue sky…after the fog lifted!! Fantastic morning to watch the balloons rise into the sky!
Yes! Just as forecasted! (Thank goodness)