A slight chance for PM Poppers this afternoon and evening…

Bill Milner

Outside of some morning fog, we had great weather for the Colorfest this weekend. Photo © 2023-Bill Milner.

Monday 9-18-2023. 9:15am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 72 degrees and the low this morning was 41 degrees. Winds gusted to 20mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 22% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize from yesterday.

Pagosa Springs historical data for September 18th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7487/ 19563720/ 1968

Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Screenshot 2023 09 18 085109
Thanks to some approaching short waves and a collapsing ridge, mid-level moisture is funneling into our area today and giving us a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast discussion…

Thanks to some approaching short waves and a collapsing ridge, mid-level moisture is funneling into our area today and giving us a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A slight chance for rain continues on Tuesday as the last of the mid-level moisture moves through, before we dry out on Wednesday. By Thursday, an approaching cold front and a low pressure moving into the Pacific NW, will set us up for a brief SW flow, giving us a slight chance for rain and even some snow showers at Wolf Creek. Unfortunately, most of the moisture will stay to our north. On Friday, look for winds gusting to 30mph as the front moves through, putting us in a dry, NW flow for the weekend. We could see lows in the 20’s for the cold spots on Saturday morning.

Screenshot 2023 09 18 080134
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting 0.05 rainfall for us and 0.40 for Wolf Creek.
Screenshot 2023 09 18 080253
The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting 0.17 rainfall for us.
Screenshot 2023 09 18 080330
The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting 0.22 rainfall for us.
Screenshot 2023 09 18 080503

The latest 5-Day Euro model is predicting 0.31 rainfall for us.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.  Rain totals: Zero to 0.10 of an inch.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in the low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Rain totals: Zero to 0.05 of an inch.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in the low to mid 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Rain totals: Zero to 0.05 of an inch. A chance for snow showers at Wolf Creek.

Friday: Partly cloudy and turning cooler with lows in the 30’s to low 40’s and highs in mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 15-20, with gusts to 30mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper 30’s and highs in the mid to upper 60’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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