Active weather again this afternoon…

Fog yesterday morning over the West Fork valley – Pic taken 9/14/2023

Fog yesterday morning over the West Fork valley – Pic taken 9/14/2023

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Friday – 15 Sep 2023 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday was 69 and the low this morning was 47. Humidity bottomed out yesterday afternoon at 32%.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 24mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7489 / 19903618 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Rain was scattered again yesterday. The Hatcher area did the best.  We had three rounds of small hail here in the south end of O’Neal Park.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from 0.02” to 0.45”. The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from 0.02” to 0.45”. The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake.
Short slow-motion video of hail yesterday

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough will move through later today and kick up a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough will move through later today and kick up a round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Radar this morning – There are a couple of light, spotty showers in our area this morning. They’re moving towards the east-northeast.
Radar this morning – There are a couple of light, spotty showers in our area this morning. They’re moving towards the east-northeast.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Isolated, brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible this afternoon and evening. ***

*** Keep an eye out for snow above 12,000ft today. ***

*** Protect your plants Friday night/Saturday morning. The cold spots in the valley will drop below freezing. ***

Today… The next trough will move northwest to southeast across the region. This will give us more clouds and a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and into the early evening.

Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas overnight and into Saturday morning.

Snow levels…

Today snow levels could drop to 12,000ft so snow is possible towards the tops of many of our peaks. I do not expect snow on Wolf Creek Pass.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range, but stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. The cold spots will drop below freezing Saturday morning.

NBM precip to midnight tonight shows 0.24” for the Pagosa area, 0.07” for Chama, and up to 0.60” in our mountains.
NBM precip to midnight tonight shows 0.24” for the Pagosa area, 0.07” for Chama, and up to 0.60” in our mountains.
NBM forecast radar from 10am this morning to midnight tonight – Showers and thunderstorms increase over the mountain through noon.  Showers and thunderstorms increase over much of the county 1-7pm and then dissipate the rest of the evening.
NBM forecast radar from 10am this morning to midnight tonight – Showers and thunderstorms increase over the mountain through noon.  Showers and thunderstorms increase over much of the county 1-7pm and then dissipate the rest of the evening.

Saturday through Tuesday… High pressure will build back over the region.  We’ll see a lot of sun and have pleasant seasonal temps. There is a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons, mostly over the mountains.

Tuesday a weak trough with marginal moisture will move through.  There will be a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but I expect most of us to stay dry.

Winds… Winds each morning will be light and variable.  Beginning around 11am each day winds will increase into the 10-20mph range out of the southwest.

Temps… Highs on Saturday will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.  Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.  The cold spots will flirt with lows near freezing each morning.

Wednesday… Behind the trough, upper-level winds will increase and drier air will move in.  We’ll be partly cloudy, dry, and breezy.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.  The cold spots will flirt freezing temps each morning.

My next post will be tomorrow. I’ll include 5-day precip totals and river flow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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