Mostly dry for the next 5 days…

The Super Blue Moon rises over Ponderosa Pines last night. © 2023-Mark Langford

Thursday 8-31-2023. 8:20am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 86 degrees and the low this morning was 49 degrees. Winds gusted to 31mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 18% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize from yesterday.

Pagosa Springs historical data August 31st.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990/ 19854130/ 1962

Fire restrictions on all National Forest System lands within the San Juan National Forest, including wilderness, will be rescinded – effective 12:01am Thursday, August 31st. Recent rains over the Forest have lessened the risk of wildland fire, allowing restrictions to be lifted. This means campfires are now allowed outside of established Forest Service campgrounds and recreation sites on the San Juan National Forest.

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Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

gfs deterministic conus z500 barbs 3612800
Although high pressure will be moving to our east over the weekend, there will not be much moisture moving into our area, so rain odds remain very slim.

Forecast discussion…

I had hoped for better rain odds this weekend with high pressure nudging east, but it looks like very little moisture will flow into our area. Any showers and storms that do form will be very scattered and drop very little rain even if they find your backyard. Next week looks even drier but cools off a bit on Monday and Tuesday as a front moves through or area. Temperatures will be on the rise as we progress through the week.

Screenshot 2023 08 31 074250
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting zero rainfall for us.
Screenshot 2023 08 31 074358
The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting zero rainfall for us.
Screenshot 2023 08 31 074433
The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting zero rainfall for us.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.  

Friday-Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds SW 10-15mph, with gusts to 25mph. 

Monday-Tuesday: Partly cloudy and cooler with lows in the upper 30’s and low 40’s and highs in the mid to upper 70’s. Winds SW 10-15mph, with gusts to 25mph. 

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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