Only a tiny chance for rain over the next 5 days…

Giant grasshopper

A giant grasshopper prepares to attack Pagosa Peak yesterday!

Tuesday 8-29-2023. 8:15am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 83 degrees. The low this morning was 48 degrees, but some of us in Little Siberian locations saw upper 30’s! Winds gusted to 16mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 19% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Not a lot of precipitation yesterday, but one weather sensor to the west of Hatcher Lake reported over an inch from a PM Popper…but as of post time, we don’t have any verification of that from the owner of the sensor.

Rain
COCORAHS 24hr rainfall totals ranged from Zero-0.26 inches, SE of town.
Screenshot 2023 08 29 071832
Remote sensor totals across our area…the highest rain total was NE of downtown with 0.10.

Pagosa Springs historical data August 29th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7089/ 19904225/ 1956

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

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Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Screenshot 2023 08 29 080705
High pressure over southern California continues to keep our upper-level flow from the NW, which is drying out our mid-levels as seen in the latest water-vapor imagery, with yellow tones representing drier air.

Forecast discussion…

Not much change since yesterday with high pressure over southern California putting us in a fairly dry NW flow. Some leftover residual moisture in the lower levels will give us a tiny chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. By this weekend, the ridge of high pressure will move to the east, giving us a better chance for rain, but as of this morning, models are still forecasting mostly dry conditions.

Screenshot 2023 08 29 071915
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting almost zero inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.02 inches for Chama, NM.
Screenshot 2023 08 29 072100
The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting 0.01 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.04 inches for Chama, NM.
Screenshot 2023 08 29 072153
The latest 5-Day GNBM model is predicting 0.03 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.05 inches for Chama, NM.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.  

Wednesday-Friday: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. 

Saturday-Sunday: Partly cloudy with a slightly better chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds SW 10-15mph, with gusts to 25mph. 

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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