Rain chances continue, but will diminish as the work week progresses…

Sunflowers

It’s hard to miss the brilliant display of yellow from our seasonal sunflowers!

Monday 8-28-2023. 9am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 79 degrees. The low this morning was 53 degrees. Winds gusted to 15mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 30% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Nice again to see some precipitation to summarize…somehow, I managed to win the daily rainfall lottery yesterday, with my total of 0.16, about a mile north of Hatcher Lake!

Screenshot 2023 08 28 084957
COCORAHS 24hr rainfall totals ranged from Zero-0.16 inches.
Screenshot 2023 08 28 081350
Remote sensor totals across our area…the highest rain totals were once again, along HWY 160 near Devil Mountain Rd and SE of town near the Navajo River.

Pagosa Springs historical data August 28th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8088/ 19904224/ 1956

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

c93cd413ce91dd051689307f77e42e3c 1

Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Screenshot 2023 08 28 083651
High pressure over southern California has switched our upper-level flow into the NW, which is drying out our mid-levels as seen in the latest water-vapor imagery, with yellow tones representing drier air.

Forecast discussion…

High pressure over southern California has put us in a NW flow, which as we all know, is not known for giving us great rain or snow chances. Fortunately, with residual moisture in the lower levels, there is still a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Later this week, the ridge of high pressure will move to our east, giving us a better chance for rain as we move into the weekend and early next week with mid-level winds returning to the SW.

Screenshot 2023 08 28 083006
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting 0.02 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.09 inches for Chama, NM.
nbm conus colorado total precip inch 3526400
The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting 0.03 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.11 inches for Chama, NM.
gfs deterministic colorado total precip inch 3699200
The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting 0.03 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.20 inches for Chama, NM.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph.  Rainfall total: 0-0.05 inches.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Daily rainfall totals: 0-0.05 inches.

Thursday-Saturday: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15mph, with gusts to 25mph. 

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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