Still a chance for rain, just not much of it!

Sunday 8-27-2023. 11:30am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 83 degrees. The low this morning was 53 degrees. Winds gusted to 32mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 21% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Nice to see some precipitation to summarize!

Screenshot 2023 08 27 092848 — *COCORAHS 24hr rainfall totals ranged from 0.02-0.16 inches.*

Screenshot 2023 08 27 073946 — Remote sensor totals across our area…the highest rain totals were along HWY 160 near Devil Mountain Rd and SE of town near the Navajo River.

Pagosa Springs historical data August 27th

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	90/ 1985	43	29/ 1956

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

gfs deterministic conus z500 barbs 3137600 — High pressure will continue to dominate our weather this week with mostly dry conditions in store. Thanks to some moisture still hanging out in the lower atmosphere, we will continue to see some PM Poppers.

Forecast discussion…

Thanks to some moisture still hanging out in the lower atmosphere, even with high pressure dominating, we will continue to see some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this week. The best odds will be today and tomorrow before the ridge moves SW into southern California, shutting off most of our SW flow. There are hints of a pattern change next weekend, but as of this post, it continues to look mostly dry for our area.

Screenshot 2023 08 27 091309 — *The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting 0.06 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.13 inches for Chama, NM.*

Screenshot 2023 08 27 091407 — *The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting 0.10 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.12 inches for Chama, NM.*

*The latest 5-Day Euro model is predicting 0.15 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.06 inches for Chama, NM.*

*The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting 0.04 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.04 inches for Chama, NM.*

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 15mph. Rainfall total: 0-0.10 inches.

Monday-Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Daily rainfall totals: 0-0.05 inches.

Thursday-Friday: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15mph, with gusts to 25mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford

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