Still a chance for rain, just not much of it!

Mountain Hugger

Most of our storms have been mountain huggers lately. I photographed this one a couple of days ago over Pagosa Peak. © 2023-Mark Langford

Sunday 8-27-2023. 11:30am update.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 83 degrees. The low this morning was 53 degrees. Winds gusted to 32mph yesterday and our humidity bottomed out at 21% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: Nice to see some precipitation to summarize!

Screenshot 2023 08 27 092848
COCORAHS 24hr rainfall totals ranged from 0.02-0.16 inches.
Screenshot 2023 08 27 073946
Remote sensor totals across our area…the highest rain totals were along HWY 160 near Devil Mountain Rd and SE of town near the Navajo River.

Pagosa Springs historical data August 27th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990/ 19854329/ 1956

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

c93cd413ce91dd051689307f77e42e3c 1

Here’s the latest on our nearby fires:

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

gfs deterministic conus z500 barbs 3137600
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather this week with mostly dry conditions in store. Thanks to some moisture still hanging out in the lower atmosphere, we will continue to see some PM Poppers.

Forecast discussion…

Thanks to some moisture still hanging out in the lower atmosphere, even with high pressure dominating, we will continue to see some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this week. The best odds will be today and tomorrow before the ridge moves SW into southern California, shutting off most of our SW flow. There are hints of a pattern change next weekend, but as of this post, it continues to look mostly dry for our area.

Screenshot 2023 08 27 091309
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS is predicting 0.06 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.13 inches for Chama, NM.
Screenshot 2023 08 27 091407
The latest 5-Day NBM model is predicting 0.10 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.12 inches for Chama, NM.
Euro
The latest 5-Day Euro model is predicting 0.15 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.06 inches for Chama, NM.
GFS
The latest 5-Day GFS model is predicting 0.04 inches of rain for Pagosa Springs and 0.04 inches for Chama, NM.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds SW 5-10mph, with gusts to 15mph. Rainfall total: 0-0.10 inches.

Monday-Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15, with gusts to 20mph. Daily rainfall totals: 0-0.05 inches.

Thursday-Friday: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40’s and 50’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Winds SW 10-15mph, with gusts to 25mph. 

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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