Lovin these colorful sunrises and sunsets! – pic taken 8/13/2023
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Tuesday – 15 Aug 2023 – 10:10am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 70 and the low this morning was 54. Humidity bottomed out at 51% yesterday afternoon – a clear indication of monsoon moisture.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 18mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 80 | 90 / 1962 | 44 | 32 / 1950 |
Precipitation summary… Yesterday was a disappointing bust for most of us but a few folks got a soaking. Carol in Alpine Lakes, Elk Ridge reported 1.39” in about 45 minutes!
Thank you, Carol, and everyone else for your weather reports on our Facebook page!
Fire updates…
Quartz Ridge Fire link
Bear Creek Fire link
Dry Lake Fire link
American Mesa Fire link
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.
Forecast Highlights…
*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, erratic gusty winds, and lightning are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons and evenings. ***
*** Fire danger has improved to “moderate”. ***
*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***
Rest of today through Friday… Monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us through Friday. We’ll continue to see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Friday is a transition day, so it won’t be quite as active.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s. Thursday high temps will be a little warmer ranging from the high 70s to mid-80s.
Saturday through Tuesday… Moisture will decrease and the atmosphere will get a little more stable. It won’t be as active, but there is still a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.
And beyond Tuesday?… Another surge of monsoon moisture is expected the second half of next week. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase.
The top chart is 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro model. The main point is that the first few days are active, then there is a lull, and then it gets active again.
The middle chart graphs the 24-hour precip totals. I pay most attention to the mean. Measurable precip is expected during the two active periods and less likely during the lull.
The bottom chart graphs precipitable water. Precipitable water is the amount of moisture in a vertical column of air potentially available for precipitation. This time of year, 0.60” to 0.70” is marginal while 0.80” or higher is good. I added the arrows to highlight the trend.
These are some of my favorite forecast products for monsoon season, but we also look at many other things. At this point, I agree with this forecast trend.
My next post will probably be tomorrow afternoon.
– Shawn
