Two more days of afternoon showers and thunderstorms…

A heavy rain shower along upper Piedra Road – pic taken by Cathy Abbott 8/16/2023

A heavy rain shower along upper Piedra Road – pic taken by Cathy Abbott 8/16/2023

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Wednesday – 16 Aug 2023 – 7:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 81 and the low this morning was 50. Humidity bottomed out at 25% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field today was 32mph at 6:35pm.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8089 / 19594432 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Most of us reported no precip this morning, but Mike in Aspen Springs reported 0.02” and Mike in the Trujillo area was the big winner with 0.29”.

Today was a lot more fun!  Those totals will be in tomorrow’s CoCoRaHS reports.  We got over a half inch of rain and pea-size hail here in the southern end of O’Neal Park!  Kristie reported just over 0.80” near Hatcher Lake!

The last time we got over 0.10” of rain was 3 July.  The last time we got over 0.20” was 7 June!
The last time we got over 0.10” of rain was 3 July.  The last time we got over 0.20” was 7 June!

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Dry Lake Fire link

American Mesa Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Infrared satellite loop this evening – Upper-level flow over us is out of the north. This means that the ridge is to our west. It was active over much of southwest Colorado this afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms are in the process of dissipating this evening.
Infrared satellite loop this evening – Upper-level flow over us is out of the north. This means that the ridge is to our west. It was active over much of southwest Colorado this afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms are in the process of dissipating this evening.
Radar this evening – This cell is “raining itself out” over much of eastern Archuleta County.  A light, steady rain will fall for the next 30-60 minutes, depending on your location.  It’s moving slowly towards the south and dissipating.
Radar this evening – This cell is “raining itself out” over much of eastern Archuleta County.  A light, steady rain will fall for the next 20-40 minutes, depending on your location.  It’s moving slowly towards the south and dissipating.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, erratic gusty winds, and lightning are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday will be less active, but those conditions are still possible. ***

*** Fire danger has improved to “moderate”. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

This evening through Friday… Monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us through Friday. We’ll continue to see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Friday is a transition day, so it won’t be quite as active.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Thursday highs will range from around 80 to the mid-80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s. Friday high temps will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

NAM forecast radar Thursday 11am to 1am on Friday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and move various directions.
NAM forecast radar Thursday 11am to 1am on Friday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon and move various directions.
NBM total precip to late Friday evening shows 0.17” for the Pagosa area, 0.17” for Chama, and up to 0.50” for our mountains. As always with convective activity, amounts will vary considerably.
NBM total precip to late Friday evening shows 0.17” for the Pagosa area, 0.17” for Chama, and up to 0.50” for our mountains. As always with convective activity, amounts will vary considerably.

Saturday through Tuesday… Moisture will decrease and the atmosphere will get more stable. It won’t be as active, but there is still a chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will range from around 80 to the mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Starting Wednesday or Thursday… Another surge of monsoon moisture is expected the second half of next week.  Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase.

My next post will probably be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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