The next few days look promising…

Another pretty sunrise in our mountain paradise – pic taken 8/13/2023

Another pretty sunrise in our mountain paradise – pic taken 8/13/2023

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Sunday – 13 Aug 2023 – 5:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 81. A shower moved through around 3:30Pm and the temp dropped 20 degrees! The low this morning was 55. Humidity bottomed out at 22% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 18mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8089 / 19964526 / 1932

Precipitation summary… Some folks got decent rain yesterday while some got nothing.  This is typical of this kind of weather pattern.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip amounts ranged from zero to 0.24”.  Udgar in the Catchpole area was the rain lottery winner.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip amounts ranged from zero to 0.24”.  Udgar in the Catchpole area was the rain lottery winner.

Fire updates…

Quartz Ridge Fire link

Bear Creek Fire link

Dry Lake Fire link

American Mesa Fire link

Forecast discussion…

Satellite and lightning loop this afternoon – This is finally a monsoon pattern! There are quite a few lightning strikes in our area. There is also a pretty strong cell in the Ignacio area.
Satellite and lightning loop this afternoon – This is finally a monsoon pattern! There are quite a few lightning strikes in our area. There is also a pretty strong cell in the Ignacio area.
Radar at 5:12pm Sunday afternoon – These showers and thunderstorms are all “slow movers” with short life cycles. Movement has been erratic. Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with these cells.
Radar at 5:12pm Sunday afternoon – These showers and thunderstorms are all “slow movers” with short life cycles. Movement has been erratic. Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with these cells.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Fire danger has improved to “moderate”. ***

*** Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are in effect for the lower elevations of San Juan National Forest and all of Archuleta County. The minimum fine for violating campfire restrictions is $530. ***

*** Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, erratic gusty winds, and lightning are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons and evenings. ***

Rest of today through Tuesday… The heart of the monsoon moisture plume and instability will peak Monday and Tuesday giving us our best chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

Euro precipitable water percent of average on Monday at 4pm – For much of Archuleta County Precipitable water, a measure of the amount of moisture potentially available for precip, is around 140-170% of average.  Our mountains are 170-190% of average.
Euro precipitable water percent of average on Monday at 4pm – For much of Archuleta County Precipitable water, a measure of the amount of moisture potentially available for precip, is around 140-170% of average.  Our mountains are 170-190% of average.
NBM forecast radar on Monday from 11am to 11pm – Showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains 1-2pm and then spread to most of the county 4-7pm.
NBM forecast radar on Monday from 11am to 11pm – Showers and thunderstorms develop over the mountains 1-2pm and then spread to most of the county 4-7pm.
NBM total precip to late Tuesday evening shows 0.50” for the Pagosa area, 0.76” for Chama, and up to 1” for our mountains. As always with convective activity, amounts will vary considerably.
NBM total precip to late Tuesday evening shows 0.50” for the Pagosa area, 0.76” for Chama, and up to 1” for our mountains. As always with convective activity, amounts will vary considerably.

Wednesday through Friday… Moisture will decrease a bit and the atmosphere will get a little more stable. It won’t be as active as Monday and Tuesday, but we’ve still got a decent shot for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 10-20mph range, but isolated stronger gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

And beyond Friday?… Marginal monsoon moisture and marginal instability will stick with us for 7-10 days. We’ll continue to see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Euro ensemble 10-day precip anomaly 0.43” above normal in the Pagosa area. I think this is a bit high, but do think most of us will see above average precip over the next 10 days.
Euro ensemble 10-day precip anomaly expects 0.43” above normal in the Pagosa area. I think this is a bit high, but do think most of us will see above average precip over the next 10 days.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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