Gusty afternoon winds and high fire danger will continue…

We really enjoyed the parade! It was great to see so many people! – pic taken 7/4/2023

We really enjoyed the parade! It was great to see so many people! – pic taken 7/4/2023

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Wednesday – 5 Jul 2023 – 10:25am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 88 and the low this morning was 48. Humidity bottomed out at 11% yesterday afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 29mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 28mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8395 / 19894224 / 1912

Precipitation summary… No precip was reported in the last 24 hours.

Fire updates…

Chris Mountain Fire on Inci Web: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-chris-mountain-fire

Chris Mountain Fire on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094353994683

Fire Weather and Avalanche Center: https://www.fireweatheravalanche.org/fire/

Fire and Smoke map: https://fire.airnow.gov/

Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100068416028570

Forecast discussion…

5 Jul 2023 am water vapor satellite
Water vapor satellite this morning – The high is off the southern CA coast with the ridge extending southwest and northeast. Most of the southwest US is dry. The moisture plume is well to our south and the high is preventing it from moving north.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** *** A Fire Weather Watch has been issued. Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will result in DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. *** This will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning at some point. I expect these conditions to persist through the week.

*** Winds will gust 25-30mph each afternoon through the rest of the week. ***

*** Fire danger is high and will gradually get worse. ***

Fire Danger high

Rest of Today through Tuesday… The subtropical ridge will remain to our southwest west. We’ll be dry and breezy through the week.

Temps… Today through Saturday highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s.  The warm spots, including our friends in Arboles, will get into the mid-90s.  Lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. Sunday through Tuesday highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s. The warm spots will flirt with 100. Lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Today through Saturday afternoon winds will gust 25-30mph out of the southwest. The windy spots will hit 35mph Friday afternoon. Sunday through Tuesday afternoon winds will gust 20-25mph out of the southwest.

NBM precip to late Tuesday evening expects none in the Pagosa area and just enough to briefly wet the ground over the South San Juans.
NBM precip to late Tuesday evening expects none in the Pagosa area and just enough to briefly wet the ground over the South San Juans.
NBM forecast wind gusts each afternoon – Today: 27mph, Thursday: 33mph, Friday: 37mph, Saturday: 35mph
NBM forecast wind gusts each afternoon –

Today: 27mph, Thursday: 33mph, Friday: 37mph, Saturday: 35mph

And the long range?  Monsoon?… I don’t like the pattern.  The high wants to park itself over AZ with an elongated ridge axis extending west and east.  This prevents the subtropical, monsoon moisture from pushing into our area.  Unless something changes, I see just a weak chance of spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms – the kind that are more likely to produce erratic, gusty winds and lightning, than rain.

GFS ensemble 500mb moisture and wind streamlines on 14 July at 6pm – 500mb is at roughly 18,000 feet and is a good level to track the overall pattern.  Streamlines depict the wind flow. Green is moist and brown is dry. The high is parked over AZ and the ridge extends west and east from the high. The subtropical moisture is well south of the US. Flow over us is mostly west to east and dry.  The flow around the high does not push the subtropical moisture our way. There is a little moisture trapped under the high that could fire up spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but this is not an encouraging pattern.
GFS ensemble 500mb moisture and wind streamlines on 14 July at 6pm – 500mb is at roughly 18,000 feet and is a good level to track the overall pattern.  Streamlines depict the wind flow. Green is moist air and brown is dry.

The high is parked over AZ and the ridge extends west and east from the high. The subtropical moisture is well south of the US. Flow over us is mostly west to east and dry.  The flow around the high does not push the subtropical moisture our way. There is a little moisture trapped under the high that could fire up spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but this is not an encouraging pattern.

My next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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