Gusty afternoon winds and high fire danger all week…

Rocky Mountain Penstemon at sunset – pic taken 7/2/2023

Rocky Mountain Penstemon at sunset – pic taken 7/2/2023

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Monday – 3 Jul 2023 – 4:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 85 and the low this morning was 45. Humidity bottomed out at 14% this afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 18mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 18mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8394 / 19894227 / 1951

Precipitation summary… Scattered showers hit a few lucky spots yesterday afternoon.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.16”.  Arleen was the rain lottery winner in the south end of O’Neal Park.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.16”.  Arleen was the rain lottery winner in the south end of O’Neal Park.

Fire updates…

Chris Mountain Fire on Inci Web: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-chris-mountain-fire

Chris Mountain Fire on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094353994683

Fire Weather and Avalanche Center: https://www.fireweatheravalanche.org/fire/

Fire and Smoke map: https://fire.airnow.gov/

Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100068416028570

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high is the main influence on our weather.  Limited moisture is trying to sneak into the region from the northwest.  The trough will slowly sink southeast and weaken but it will tighten the gradient leading to gusty winds.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high is the main influence on our weather.  Limited moisture is trying to sneak into the region from the northwest.  The trough will slowly sink southeast and weaken but it will tighten the gradient leading to gusty winds.
Radar on Sunday at 4:32pm – There were a couple of weak showers south of Highway 160 that were moving towards the south-southeast.
Radar on Sunday at 4:32pm – There were a couple of weak showers south of Highway 160 that were moving towards the south-southeast.

Forecast Highlights…

*** *** A Red Flag Warning has been issued. Gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels will result in DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. It’s valid on Tuesday from noon to 9pm. *** I expect these conditions to persist through the week.

3 Jul 2023 pm Red Flag Warning

*** Starting Tuesday and lasting through week, winds will gust 25-30mph each afternoon. ***

*** Fire danger is high and will gradually get worse. ***

Rest of Today through Sunday… The subtropical ridge will remain to our southwest and west. We’ll be dry and breezy through the week.

Temps… Tonight lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. Tuesday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s.  The warm spots, including our friends in Arboles, will get into the mid-90s.  Lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s. Friday through Sunday highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

Winds… Each afternoon winds will gust 25-30mph out of the southwest. The windy spots will hit 35mph Thursday afternoon.

NBM precip to late Sunday evening expects 0.02” in the Pagosa area. This is spotty convective precip.  I expect most of us to stay dry.
NBM precip to late Sunday evening expects 0.02” in the Pagosa area. This is spotty convective precip.  I expect most of us to stay dry.
NBM forecast wind gusts each afternoon – Tuesday: 25mph, Wednesday: 28mph, Thursday: 36mph, Friday: 32mph
NBM forecast wind gusts each afternoon –
Tuesday: 25mph, Wednesday: 28mph, Thursday: 36mph, Friday: 32mph

We’d love to see you at the 4th of July Parade tomorrow!

My next post will either be tomorrow afternoon or on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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