Pagosa Weather JUNE SUMMARY & July Outlook

This week's drought map is nearly blank - NO DROUGHT!

This week’s drought map is nearly blank – NO DROUGHT!

Saturday – 1 Jul 2023 – 5:20pm

June Summary…

The average high for June is 78 and the average low is 36. The record high of 101 occurred on 30 June 1934. The record low of 20 occurred on 2 June 1908. Precip averages 0.93″ in June – our driest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 1.74″ of rain and 1.2″ of snow.

How did we do?

Temps were below average for the month of June
Temps were below average for the month of June
According to this product, June precip percent of average varied considerably across Archuleta County.  However, I don't agree with this.
According to this product, June precip percent of average varied considerably across Archuleta County. However, I don’t agree with this.
CoCoRaHS June precip totals range from 0.90" to 1.49".  The average of these 17 reports are 1.11" - slightly above the historical June average of 0.93".  These reports are more accurate representation than the product above.
CoCoRaHS June precip totals range from 0.90″ to 1.49″. The average of these 17 reports is 1.11″ – slightly above the historical June average of 0.93″. These reports are more accurate representation than the product above.

*** CoCoRaHS observers, remember to be “a zero hero”. Please do your best to report “0” when you don’t receive any precip. If there is no data, your totals aren’t included on maps like this. Thanks! ***

Drought, River Flow, and Lake Levels…

Colorado looks great!  The central part of the country continues to experience significant drought conditions.
Colorado looks great! The central part of the country continues to experience significant drought conditions.
San Juan River flow, top, had a low of 618cfs on 30 Jun and a peak of 2,930cfs on 7 Jun. Piedra River flow, bottom, had a low of 444cfs on 30 Jun and a peak of 1,990cfs on 7 Jun. Note the three surges towards the end of June last year (light purple/gray line).  Those were from rain events from the early monsoon last year.
San Juan River flow, top, had a low of 618cfs on 30 Jun and a peak of 2,930cfs on 7 Jun. Piedra River flow, bottom, had a low of 444cfs on 30 Jun and a peak of 1,990cfs on 7 Jun.

Note the three surges towards the end of June last year (light purple/gray line). Those were from rain events from the early monsoon last year.
These are lake levels for Upper Colorado Basin lakes. On the left is 1 Jul and on the right is 31 March. Overall, lakes in the upper Colorado River Basin are currently at 88.8% – a 30% rise since late March!
These are lake levels for Upper Colorado Basin lakes. On the left is 1 Jul and on the right is 31 March. Overall, lakes in the upper Colorado River Basin are currently at 88.8% – a 30% rise since late March!
Navajo Reservoir is at 76.3%. The peak inflow to Navajo Reservoir for the season was 8,882cfs on 17 May. At its peak, the lake rose nearly 47 feet from its low in late February!

July Outlook…

The average high for July is 83 – our warmest month – and the average low is 44. The record high of 99 occurred on 7 July 1989. The record low of 24 occurred on 5 July 1912. Precip averages 2.01″ in July. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.61″ of rain and zero snow.

The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for July on the left indicates "equal chances" for average temps. The precip outlook on the right indicates "equal chances" for average precip.
The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook for July on the left indicates “equal chances” for average temps.
The precip outlook on the right indicates “equal chances” for average precip.
The Euro ensemble, on the left, expects 1.72″ of precip near Pagosa Springs for July while the GFS ensemble, on the right, expects 2.61″. The Euro expects less than the average of 0.93″ while the GFS expects more than average. Last month the GFS was way too high while the Euro was much closer.
The Euro ensemble, on the left, expects 1.72″ of precip near Pagosa Springs for July while the GFS ensemble, on the right, expects 2.61″. The Euro expects less than the average of 0.93″ while the GFS expects more than average. Last month the GFS was way too high while the Euro was much closer.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert and this is what she expects…

July is normally one of our wettest months with the monsoon kicking into full gear. Well, July 2023 is not going to be one of those months. We are still under the influence of a dry early summer pattern. The first two weeks of July, the ridge is too far west which will prevent the monsoon from setting up. *** The few showers and thunderstorms we will see, will be weak, high based storms with mostly winds and lightning rather than rain. ***

Finally, we should see a shift at mid month with the ridge retrograding to the east, strengthening and finally wrapping subtropical moisture into the southwest. The last third of the month, we should see our daily afternoon thunderstorms due to the monsoon pattern. But it will be late to the game so I expect July to receive less than average precipitation. July temperatures will be above average since we won’t have those cooling storms each afternoon.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

And if you’re curious about us, check out this excellent video by Matt Martin. We are humbled and honored that he used his talent and time to spotlight Pagosa Weather!

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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