Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow…

Purple fringe flowers on the shore of Continental Reservoir – pic taken 6/28/2023

Purple fringe flowers on the shore of Continental Reservoir – pic taken 6/28/2023

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Sunday – 2 Jul 2023 – 8:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 82 and the low this morning was 49. Humidity bottomed out at 13% yesterday afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 17mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had a peak wind of 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19904126 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There was no precip reported in the last 24-hours.

Fire updates…

Chris Mountain Fire on Inci Web: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident-information/cosjf-chris-mountain-fire

Chris Mountain Fire on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100094353994683

Fire Weather and Avalanche Center: https://www.fireweatheravalanche.org/fire/

Fire and Smoke map: https://fire.airnow.gov/

Archuleta County, CO Sheriff’s Office: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100068416028570

Forecast discussion…

Geo Color satellite this morning – There are clear skies over most of the southwest US. A little batch of moisture will try to move into our area from the northwest and help kick up a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
Geo Color satellite this morning – There are clear skies over most of the southwest US. A little batch of moisture will try to move into our area from the northwest and help kick up a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm.

There is nothing on radar in our region this morning.

Forecast Highlights…

*** Winds will be light today and tomorrow.  Starting Tuesday, winds will gust to around 25mph each afternoon. ***

*** Fire danger is high and will gradually get worse. ***

*** There is a slight chance for spotty showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Keep an eye out for new fires. ***

Rest of Today through Friday… The subtropical ridge will remain to our southwest and west. We’ll see a little surge of moisture and instability this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon leading to a chance of spotty showers and thunderstorms.  The rest of this week will be dry.

Temps… Today highs will be 80-90 and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. The rest of the week highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s.  The warm spots will get into the mid-90s.  Lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Winds… Today and tomorrow afternoon winds will peak around 15mph. Tuesday through Friday, afternoon winds will peak around 25mph.  The windy spots could hit 30mph Tuesday and Friday.

NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.05” near the mountains and around 0.10” in the mountains.  It’s all convective, spotty precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NWS 72-hour precip shows up to 0.05” near the mountains and around 0.10” in the mountains.  It’s all convective, spotty precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM forecast wind gusts each afternoon – Tuesday: 29mph, Wednesday: 27mph, Thursday: 29mph, Friday: 31mph
NBM forecast wind gusts each afternoon –
Tuesday: 29mph, Wednesday: 27mph, Thursday: 29mph, Friday: 31mph

Next 15 days…

The subtropical ridge will remain to our southwest and west until around the 12th and keep us mostly dry.  Starting around the 12th, the ridge will move a little east, nearly over our heads, and subtropical moisture will slowly filter into our area.

This is Euro ensemble precip on the left and forecast high and low temps for the next 15 days. I’ll start with the upper left.  This is 24-hour precip amounts from 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model.  It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. Periods 1 and 2 indicate a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Period 3 gets a bit more active with a better chance but it’s still weak.  The bottom left chart shows total precip amounts. It indicates less than 0.10” of precip before the 12th and then it ramps up a bit more to finish at 0.25”. That’s well below average for this time of year. The chart on the right is forecast daily high and low temps.
This is Euro ensemble precip on the left and forecast high and low temps for the next 15 days.

I’ll start with the upper left.  This is 24-hour precip amounts from 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model.  It’s read left to right, and times are in Zulu. Periods 1 and 2 indicate a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Period 3 gets a bit more active with a better chance but it’s still weak. 

The bottom left chart shows total precip amounts. It indicates less than 0.10” of precip before the 12th and then it ramps up a bit more to finish at 0.25”. That’s well below average for this time of year.

The chart on the right is forecast daily high and low temps.

I’ll try to get a post out tomorrow, otherwise it will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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