Calmer winds and a slight chance for PM Poppers

Bull Elk

A couple of bull elks were hanging out along Coyote Loop Trail late yesterday afternoon. © 2023-Mark Langford.

Saturday 7-1-2023. 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 79 and the low this morning was 47 degrees. Winds gusted to 27mph yesterday. Humidity bottomed out at 10% yesterday afternoon.

Precipitation summary: The was no precipitation to summarize yesterday!

Here are three great links for staying up to date on our current and any new fires that may flare up in the future:

Chris Mountain Fire-Facebook Page: (9) Facebook

FWAC Wildfire Map – Current Wildfires, Forest Fires, and Lightning Strikes near you | Fire, Weather & Avalanche Center (fireweatheravalanche.org)

Fire and Smoke Map (airnow.gov)

Screenshot 2023 07 01 084052
As of this morning, the two primary fires in our county are the Chris Mountain Fire to the west of town and the Coal Mine Fire to the south.

There is now a Facebook page for the Chris Mountain Fire ( (9) Facebook). Here is the latest update from last night: Operational priorities on the Chris Mountain Fire didn’t change since yesterday, but fire behavior has picked up some this afternoon. The fire has now consumed 347 acres and has been backing down the Devil Creek drainage. Single Engine Air Tankers (SEATs), Large Air Tankers (LATs), and multiple helicopters are helping to slow the fire’s spread at the heel of the fire. See Inciweb for a full evening update: https://tinyurl.com/rmat785.

Screenshot 2023 07 01 084928
The latest info on the Coal Mine Fire to the south of town.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into late June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8392/ 19904129/ 1968

Forecast discussion…

Screenshot 2023 07 01 093156
Although there is a lot of dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere under a NW flow, there will be enough instability to give us a slight chance for afternoon storms today and tomorrow.

A weak NW flow and enough moisture and instability in the atmosphere will give us a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully, the storms will not produce much lightning and start more fires! Look for mainly a dry week ahead with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. Coming soon! Look for Shawn to post his June summery and Arleen’s thoughts on when we might see our monsoon arrive.

Screenshot 2023 07 01 085236
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast predicts 0.08 inches of rain.
Screenshot 2023 07 01 090539 1
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.05 inches of rain from today through tomorrow.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with highs in in the low to mid 80’s. Winds will shift from the north this morning to the SW this afternoon, then back to the north this evening. Smoke from the Chris Mountain Fire will end up impacting various parts of the county as winds shift today. Winds will gust to 20mph. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. Rainfall totals from zero-0.05.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with lows in the 40’s and highs in the low to mid 80’s. Variable winds out of the south, north, SW and NW. Smoke from the Chris Mountain Fire will end up impacting various parts of the county as winds shift during the day. Winds will gust to 20mph. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. Rainfall totals from zero-0.05.

Monday: Partly cloudy with lows in the 40’s and highs in the mid to upper 80’s. Variable winds out of the south, north, SW and NW. Smoke from the Chris Mountain Fire will end up impacting various parts of the county as winds shift during the day. Winds will gust to 20mph.

July 4th: Partly cloudy with lows in the 40’s and highs in the mid to upper 80’s. Variable winds out of the south, north, SW and NW. Smoke from the Chris Mountain Fire will end up impacting various parts of the county as winds shift during the day. Winds will gust to 25mph.

Wednesday-Thursday: Partly cloudy with lows in the 40’s and highs in the mid to upper 80’s. Mostly SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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