Rain chances continue through Wednesday…

Lightning

Monday 6-5-2023. 1:15pm

Another image from storms over the past week…love it when we see storms during the night, so getting good lightning images is possible! © 2023-Mark Langford

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 72 and the low this morning was 40 degrees. Winds gusted to 20mph.

Precipitation summary: No precipitation recorded from our COCORAHS observers but 0.12 was recorded at a NWS remote site about 10 miles NE of Chromo.

Screenshot 2023 06 05 113036
Remote sensors recorded zero to 0.12 inches 10 miles NE of Chromo.
LakesOnline LakeLevel
Navajo Lake has now reached its highest point since 2020!

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7693/ 19463520/ 1908
Radar
As of 1pm, we are mainly seeing “Mountain Hugger” storms that are popping up and moving very little. Expect more storms to continue this afternoon, with the valley seeing storm activity as well.

Forecast discussion…

With moisture still available in the mid-levels in our area, and a low pressure off southern California that will drift slightly east over the next 48 hours, look for continued chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best odds today through Wednesday. The low moves north of Nevada by Thursday, and our rain chances will taper down to almost zero the rest of the week.

A reminder to hikers…afternoon storms can not only produce lightning and drop hail and brief heavy rain, but temperatures can drop quickly, producing the potential for hypothermia if you are not prepared with rain jackets, etc.

Screenshot 2023 06 05 123731
With moisture still available in the mid-levels in our area, and a low pressure off southern California that will drift slightly east over the next 48 hours, look for continued chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best odds on today through Wednesday.
Screenshot 2023 06 05 124816
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS predicts 0.30 inches for Pagosa Springs.
NBM
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.24 inches of rain for us from today through Wednesday.
GFS
The latest GFS model is predicting 0.83 inches of rain through Wednesday.
Screenshot 2023 06 05 125057
The latest Euro model is predicting 0.55 inches of rain through Wednesday.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Rainfall totals: 0.05 to 0.20 inches.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Rainfall totals: 0.05 to 0.20 inches.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Rainfall totals: 0.05 to 0.20 inches.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall total: Zero-0.05 inches.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in low to mid 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a tiny chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in low to mid 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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