Southern CA low will give us a good chance for rain through Wednesday afternoon…

Rainbow

Yesterday’s afternoon storms lead to some nice rainbows…

Tuesday 6-6-2023. 9am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 71 and the low this morning was 41 degrees. Winds gusted to 33mph during a thunderstorm.

Precipitation summary: Our COCORAHS observers reported 0.02 inches to 0.19 near Chromo. Remote sensors recorded zero to 0.16 at Devil Mountain in western Archuleta County and 0.20 in Chama, NM.

Screenshot 2023 06 06 083348
Our COCORAHS observers reported 0.02 inches to 0.19 near Chromo.
Screenshot 2023 06 06 074700
Remote sensors recorded zero to 0.16 at Devil Mountain in western Archuleta County and 0.20 near Chama, NM.

Pagosa Springs historical data

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7592/ 19463624/ 1951

Forecast discussion…

A low pressure in southern California is bringing up Pacific moisture into our area from the SW. The low will drift slightly east today and tomorrow, then weaken and move north on Thursday, reducing our rain odds to nearly zero as it does. The best odds for rain will be late this afternoon and tonight as the low moves as far east as it will trek, bringing in additional moisture into our area. Our precipitable water will approach 0.74 inches this afternoon and evening which means thunderstorms have the potential to drop some brief heavy rain.

A reminder to hikers…afternoon storms can not only produce lightning and drop hail and brief heavy rain, but temperatures can drop quickly, producing the potential for hypothermia if you are not prepared with rain jackets, etc.

Screenshot 2023 06 06 084320
A low pressure in southern California is bringing up Pacific moisture into our area from the SW. The low will drift slightly east today and tomorrow, then weaken and move north on Thursday, reducing our rain odds to nearly zero as it does.
Screenshot 2023 06 06 085032
Our precipitable water will approach 0.74 inches this afternoon and evening which means thunderstorms have the potential to drop some brief heavy rain.
Screenshot 2023 06 06 081859
The latest 3-day rainfall forecast from the NWS continues to predict 0.30 inches for Pagosa Springs.
NBM 1
The latest NBM model is predicting 0.38 inches of rain for us from today through tomorrow.
HRRR
The latest HRRR model is predicting 0.38 inches of rain through tomorrow.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a good chance for late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Rainfall totals: 0.05 to 0.30 inches.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a good chance for morning and afternoon thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Rainfall totals: 0.05 to 0.20 inches.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in upper 60’s to low 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph with wind gusts over 25mph near thunderstorms. Daily rainfall total: Zero-0.05 inches.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in low to mid 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s and highs in low to mid 70’s. SW winds 10-15mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

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