Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms starting tomorrow…

Beautiful spring day in Pagosa Country – pic taken 5/30/2023

Beautiful spring day in Pagosa Country – pic taken 5/30/2023

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Tuesday – 30 May 2023 – 4:40pm

*** Pagosa Weather is doing a public presentation with the San Juan Outdoor Club on Wednesday, 31 May. Social half-hour will start at 6pm and our talk will begin around 6:40pm. Location is the PLPOA Club House, 230 Port Ave. Hope to see you there! ***

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 74 – so close to a contest winner! The low this morning was 38, and humidity bottomed out at 11% yesterday afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 23mph. Our peak wind yesterday afternoon in O’Neal Park was also 23mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7289 / 19103212 / 1916

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip was reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Visual satellite this afternoon – Like the last couple of days, I just see “pancake cu” – cumulus clouds that flatten out like pancakes.  This means that the atmosphere is stable, and showers are unlikely. It’s a different story for eastern CO and eastern NM where some impressive thunderstorms have developed. The blue line divides the stable vs unstable air.
Visual satellite this afternoon – Like the last couple of days, I just see “pancake cu” – cumulus clouds that flatten out like pancakes.  This means that the atmosphere is stable, and showers are unlikely. It’s a different story for eastern CO and eastern NM where some impressive thunderstorms have developed. The blue line divides the stable vs unstable air.
Radar this afternoon – Scattered showers and thunderstorms fired up over eastern CO and eastern NM but there are none in our area.
Radar this afternoon – Scattered showers and thunderstorms fired up over eastern CO and eastern NM but there are none in our area.

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. ***

*** The prescribed burn 10 miles northeast of Bayfield has gone very well. Today should be the last day if things go as planned. Smoke could move into the Pagosa region, especially the upper Piedra area. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow rose to 2,800cfs last night. As of late this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 4.5” of snow water equivalent (SWE). On 29 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,774cfs, an outflow of 3,950cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point.  There has been a change to the release schedule. Releases will slowly ramp up to 5,000cfs by 1 Jun and stay there through 16 Jun.  Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow rose to 2,800cfs last night. As of late this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 4.5” of snow water equivalent (SWE).

On 29 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,774cfs, an outflow of 3,950cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point.  There has been a change to the release schedule. Releases will slowly ramp up to 5,000cfs by 1 Jun and stay there through 16 Jun.  Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today… A more typical springtime dry, southwest flow pattern has set up.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

Winds… Afternoons gusts will peak in the 15-25mph range and then decrease during the evening.

Wednesday through next Tuesday… A series of weak systems will move through the Four Corners region.

Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms.  I just see a 30-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.  The best surges of moisture and instability are tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday leading to a better chance for more activity.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range.  However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM total precip to late Tuesday evening shows 0.56” near Pagosa, 0.68” near Chama, and up to 1.25” in the south San Juans. Eastern Colorado will be favored. Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.
NBM total precip to late Tuesday evening shows 0.56” near Pagosa, 0.68” near Chama, and up to 1.25” in the south San Juans. Eastern Colorado will be favored.

Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.

I might do a quick Facebook post tomorrow afternoon, otherwise my next post will be Thursday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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