Beautiful spring day in Pagosa Country – pic taken 5/30/2023
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Tuesday – 30 May 2023 – 4:40pm
*** Pagosa Weather is doing a public presentation with the San Juan Outdoor Club on Wednesday, 31 May. Social half-hour will start at 6pm and our talk will begin around 6:40pm. Location is the PLPOA Club House, 230 Port Ave. Hope to see you there! ***
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 74 – so close to a contest winner! The low this morning was 38, and humidity bottomed out at 11% yesterday afternoon.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 23mph. Our peak wind yesterday afternoon in O’Neal Park was also 23mph.
*** The average last freeze is 31 May. Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 72 | 89 / 1910 | 32 | 12 / 1916 |
Precipitation summary… No measurable precip was reported in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
Highlights…
*** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. ***
*** The prescribed burn 10 miles northeast of Bayfield has gone very well. Today should be the last day if things go as planned. Smoke could move into the Pagosa region, especially the upper Piedra area. ***
River flow…
On 29 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,774cfs, an outflow of 3,950cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point. There has been a change to the release schedule. Releases will slowly ramp up to 5,000cfs by 1 Jun and stay there through 16 Jun. Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
Rest of today… A more typical springtime dry, southwest flow pattern has set up.
Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Winds… Afternoons gusts will peak in the 15-25mph range and then decrease during the evening.
Wednesday through next Tuesday… A series of weak systems will move through the Four Corners region.
Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms. I just see a 30-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day. The best surges of moisture and instability are tomorrow, Monday, and Tuesday leading to a better chance for more activity.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range. However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.
I might do a quick Facebook post tomorrow afternoon, otherwise my next post will be Thursday morning.
– Shawn
