Powder day up at Wolf Creek on the 1st of June?! – Web cam capture on 6/1/2023
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Thursday – 1 Jun 2023 – 10:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 70 and the low this morning was 37. Humidity bottomed out at 13% Tuesday afternoon and then 24% early Wednesday afternoon before storms moved through.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 25mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had three gusts to 27mph, but I think we had stronger winds around midnight. Mark hit 35mph near Hatcher Lake last night.
*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods. Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***
What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas. If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 72 | 85 / 1956 | 33 | 22 / 1971 |
Precipitation summary… Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across the county most of yesterday afternoon. A strong band of showers moved through the northern part of the county around midnight and really kicked up the winds.
Our mountains got some snow down to about 10,800ft. CDOT cams up at Wolf Creek Pass showed a dusting of snow along the road this morning.
Forecast discussion…
Highlights…
*** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. ***
*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***
River flow…
On 30 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,938cfs, an outflow of 4,110cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are close to evening out, so it’s near the high point. The release is expected to hit 5,000cfs today and stay there through 16 Jun. Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
Rest of today through next Thursday… A series of weak systems will move through the Four Corners region.
Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms. I just see a 30-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.
Temps… Today, tomorrow, and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Sunday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be mostly in the 15-20mph range. However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.
My next forecast post will be tomorrow. Keep an eye out later this afternoon for the May summary and June outlook.
– Shawn
