Scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next 7-10 days…

Powder day up at Wolf Creek on the 1st of June?! – Web cam capture on 6/1/2023

Powder day up at Wolf Creek on the 1st of June?! – Web cam capture on 6/1/2023

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Thursday – 1 Jun 2023 – 10:30am

It was great seeing everyone at the presentation last night!
It was great seeing everyone at the presentation last night!

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 70 and the low this morning was 37. Humidity bottomed out at 13% Tuesday afternoon and then 24% early Wednesday afternoon before storms moved through.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 25mph. Here in O’Neal Park we had three gusts to 27mph, but I think we had stronger winds around midnight.  Mark hit 35mph near Hatcher Lake last night.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May, but we’re not out of the woods.  Average low temps remain in the mid-30s into the third week of June so temps can still drop below freezing. ***

What is a cold spot? Cold spots are lower areas like valleys, drainages, and stream areas.  If your morning low temps are usually at the bottom of our forecast range, you are in a cold spot.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7285 / 19563322 / 1971

Precipitation summary… Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across the county most of yesterday afternoon.  A strong band of showers moved through the northern part of the county around midnight and really kicked up the winds.

Our mountains got some snow down to about 10,800ft. CDOT cams up at Wolf Creek Pass showed a dusting of snow along the road this morning.

CoCoRaHS reports this morning range from 0.07” to 0.45” – another good example of how precip varies so much with these showers.
CoCoRaHS reports this morning range from 0.07” to 0.45” – another good example of how precip varies so much with these showers.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The low over south-central UT will slowly weaken and slowly move northeast. It has enough moisture and instability to cause another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The low over south-central UT will slowly weaken and slowly move northeast. It has enough moisture and instability to cause another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms today.
Radar at 9:42am this morning – A band of showers moved through the western part of the county this morning.
Radar at 9:42am this morning – A band of showers moved through the western part of the county this morning.

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will continue to flirt with freezing temps each morning. ***

*** Brief periods of localized heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow dropped to 2,060cfs this morning. That’s still over 500cfs above the median and over 1,700cfs higher than last year at this time. As of this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 2.5” of snow water equivalent (SWE). On 30 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,938cfs, an outflow of 4,110cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are close to evening out, so it’s near the high point.  The release is expected to hit 5,000cfs today and stay there through 16 Jun.  Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow dropped to 2,060cfs this morning. That’s still over 500cfs above the median and over 1,700cfs higher than last year at this time. As of this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 2.5” of snow water equivalent (SWE).

On 30 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,938cfs, an outflow of 4,110cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are close to evening out, so it’s near the high point.  The release is expected to hit 5,000cfs today and stay there through 16 Jun.  Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today through next Thursday… A series of weak systems will move through the Four Corners region.

Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but remain marginal for showers and thunderstorms.  I just see a 30-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.

Temps… Today, tomorrow, and Saturday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-30s to low 40s.  Sunday through Thursday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be mostly in the 15-20mph range.  However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

HRRR forecast radar loop from 10am to 10pm today – Showers and thunderstorms develop between noon and 1pm and then it’s pretty active until around 6pm.  Storms will move towards the north.
HRRR forecast radar loop from 10am to 10pm today – Showers and thunderstorms develop between noon and 1pm and then it’s pretty active until around 6pm.  Storms will move towards the north.
NBM total precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.74” near Pagosa, 0.72” near Chama, and up to 1.25” in the south San Juans. Eastern Colorado will be favored. Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.
NBM total precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.74” near Pagosa, 0.72” near Chama, and up to 1.25” in the south San Juans. Eastern Colorado will be favored.
Note: This is all convective showers which means it will be spotty. Any single shower is capable of dropping a bunch of rain over a small area in a short period.

My next forecast post will be tomorrow.  Keep an eye out later this afternoon for the May summary and June outlook.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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