Beautiful weather through Tuesday – Scattered showers & thunderstorms starting Wednesday…

Memorial Day – please take a minute tomorrow to thank those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country

Memorial Day – please take a minute tomorrow to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our country

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Sunday – 28 May 2023 – 2:30pm

*** Pagosa Weather is doing a public presentation with the San Juan Outdoor Club on Wednesday, 31 May. Social half-hour will start at 6pm and our talk will begin around 6:40pm. Location is the PLPOA Club House, 230 Port Ave. Hope to see you there! ***

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 69, the low this morning was 32, and humidity bottomed out at 13% yesterday afternoon.

* I hope your plants were protected last night.  Many of us got below freezing.  There were quite a few areas in the upper 20s this morning. *

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 28mph. Our peak wind yesterday afternoon in O’Neal Park was also 28mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7185 / 19103217 / 1916

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip was reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Visual satellite loop this afternoon – Outside my window I just see “pancake cu” – cumulus clouds that flatten out like pancakes.  This means that the atmosphere is stable, and showers are unlikely. On this loop, any white areas not moving in our area is snow. It’s mostly clear over much of the region.
Visual satellite loop this afternoon – Outside my window I just see “pancake cu” – cumulus clouds that flatten out like pancakes.  This means that the atmosphere is stable, and showers are unlikely. On this loop, any white areas not moving in our area is snow. There are just a few clouds over much of the region.
Zoomed in satellite image - Smoke from the controlled burn I mentioned below in “Highlights” is circled in red.  The smoke is moving towards the northeast this afternoon.
Zoomed in satellite image – Smoke from the controlled burn I mentioned below in “Highlights” is circled in red.  The smoke is moving towards the northeast this afternoon.

Radar this afternoon – Nothing significant in the Four Corners area.

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will be near freezing each morning until Wednesday. ***

*** A prescribed burn was started today 10 miles northeast of Bayfield. Over the next 24 hours winds at 10,000ft will fluctuate between southwest and northwest so smoke could move into the Pagosa area. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow rose to nearly 3,000cfs last night. As of early this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 9” of snow water equivalent (SWE). On 27 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 6,538cfs, an outflow of 3,940cfs, and rose 0.3 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point.  There has been a change to the release schedule. Releases will slowly ramp up to 5,000cfs by 1 Jun and stay there until 17 Jun.  Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow rose to nearly 3,000cfs last night. As of early this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 9” of snow water equivalent (SWE).

On 27 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 6,538cfs, an outflow of 3,940cfs, and rose 0.3 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point.  There has been a change to the release schedule. Releases will slowly ramp up to 5,000cfs by 1 Jun and stay there until 17 Jun.  Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today through Tuesday… A more typical springtime dry, southwest flow pattern has set up. There is a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the mountains.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be 30-40. *** The cold spots will be near freezing each morning. ***

Winds… Afternoons gusts will peak in the 15-20mph range. On Tuesday, the windy spots could hit 25mph.

Wednesday through next Sunday… Precipitable water, a measure of moisture, and Cape, a measure of instability, will both increase but I expect them to be marginal for showers and thunderstorms.  I just see a 30-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. 

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range.  However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NBM total precip to Wednesday at 6am shows nothing for Archuleta County.
NBM total precip to Wednesday at 6am shows nothing for Archuleta County.
NBM total precip to late Sunday evening shows 0.08” near Pagosa and up to 0.30” in the south San Juans. Eastern Colorado will be favored.
NBM total precip to late Sunday evening shows 0.08” near Pagosa and up to 0.30” in the south San Juans. Eastern Colorado will be favored.

My next post will be Tuesday afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. Thanks for posting the ups and downs of the San Juan River. I am not in town to catch the KWUF updates so your posts are very helpful.

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