Fantastic weather through Tuesday!…

Another spectacular sunset in Pagosa Country – Pic taken 5/23/2023

Another spectacular sunset in Pagosa Country – Pic taken 5/23/2023

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Friday – 26 May 2023 – 9:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 73, the low this morning was 41, and humidity bottomed out at 15% yesterday afternoon.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 25mph. Our peak wind yesterday afternoon in O’Neal Park was 24mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7186 / 19473222 / 1950

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip was reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Upper level flow is out of the southwest in our area, circulating around that low. Drier, more stable air is moving into the region.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Upper level flow is out of the southwest in our area, circulating around that low. Drier, more stable air is moving into the region.

Radar this morning – Nothing significant in the Four Corners area.

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will be near freezing each morning. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow rose slightly over 3,000cfs last night. As of 5am this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has 11.6” of snow water equivalent (SWE). On 25 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 6,112cfs, an outflow of 4,200cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point.  There has been a change to the release schedule. Releases will slowly ramp up to 5,000cfs by 1 Jun and stay there until 17Jun.  Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow rose slightly over 3,000cfs last night. As of 5am this morning, the Upper San Juan snotel still has 11.6” of snow water equivalent (SWE).

On 25 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 6,112cfs, an outflow of 4,200cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point.  There has been a change to the release schedule. Releases will slowly ramp up to 5,000cfs by 1 Jun and stay there until 17 Jun.  Flow is expected to be back to 500cfs by 28 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today through Tuesday… A more typical springtime dry, southwest flow pattern will set up. There will be a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. I expect most of us to be dry.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. *** The cold spots will be near freezing each morning. ***

Winds… Friday and Saturday afternoons winds will gust into the 20-30mph range. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons winds will peak in the 15-20mph range.

The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast precip to Tuesday at 6pm shows a couple of spots of light precip mostly over our mountains.
The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast precip to Tuesday at 6pm shows a couple of spots of light precip mostly over our mountains.

Next Wednesday and beyond… Moisture will gradually increase, the atmosphere will gradually become more unstable, and we’ll see a better chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Temps for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s, and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Winds for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday… Afternoon gusts will mostly be in the 15-20mph range.  However, isolated gusts 25-35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Euro ensemble 15-day total precip – Precip ramps up starting next Wednesday/Thursday.  By the end of the 15-day period, the Euro forecast model expects 1.3” near Pagosa.  The usual reminder: This is all convective precip and will be spotty. Showers are capable of dropping a bunch of rain over small areas in short periods.
Euro ensemble 15-day total precip – Precip ramps up starting next Wednesday/Thursday.  By the end of the 15-day period, the Euro forecast model expects 1.3” near Pagosa. 
The usual reminder: This is all convective precip and will be spotty. Showers are capable of dropping a bunch of rain over small areas in short periods.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both indicate a chance for above average precip. At this point, I expect our weather to be more active but I’m skeptical that we’ll get above average precip.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both indicate a chance for above average precip. At this point, I expect our weather to be more active but I’m skeptical that we’ll get above average precip.

My next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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