Glorious spring weather through the weekend!…

Love those damp spring mornings! – Pic taken 5/21/2023

Love those damp spring mornings! – Pic taken 5/21/2023

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Wednesday – 24 May 2023 – 7:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 73, the low this morning was 39, and humidity bottomed out at 17% late in the afternoon.  As expected, humidity has dropped considerably.

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 26mph. Our peak wind this afternoon in O’Neal Park was 25mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7082 / 19843219 / 1980

Precipitation summary… The trend for less precip has continued. 24-hour precip reports are minimal.

10-day precip amounts are impressive though!  That’s the second map below.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.07”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.07”.
CoCoRaHS 10-day precip totals from 14 May to 24 May range from 0.69” to 2.53”. Average precip for May is 1.26” so these totals are pretty impressive.
CoCoRaHS 10-day precip totals from 14 May to 24 May range from 0.69” to 2.53”. Average precip for May is 1.26” so these totals are pretty impressive.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this evening – The high pressure has moved to our east.  Drier southwest flow is pushing into the Four Corners area.
Water vapor satellite this evening – The high pressure has moved to our east.  Drier southwest flow is pushing into the Four Corners area.

Radar this evening – As of 6:30pm scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved east out of Archuleta County.  It’s a beautiful evening!

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will be near freezing each morning. ***

River flow…

San Juan River flow has risen to nearly 2,400cfs at 6pm this evening. As of this afternoon, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 14” of snow water equivalent (SWE). On 23 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,753cfs, an outflow of 3,940cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point.  Releases will continue to ramp up to 5,000cfs by 25 May and stay there for 21 days.  They’ll start ramping back down around 14 Jun and plan to be back to 500cfs by 25 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices
San Juan River flow has risen to nearly 2,400cfs at 6pm this evening. As of this afternoon, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 14” of snow water equivalent (SWE).

On 23 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,753cfs, an outflow of 3,940cfs, and rose 0.2 feet. Releases and inflows are starting to even out, so I think we’re near the high point.  Releases will continue to ramp up to 5,000cfs by 25 May and stay there for 21 days.  They’ll start ramping back down around 14 Jun and plan to be back to 500cfs by 25 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices

Rest of today through Tuesday… We’ll continue to dry out. A more typical springtime dry, southwest flow pattern will set up. There will be a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. I expect most of us to be dry.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. *** The cold spots will be near freezing each morning. ***

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-20mph range. Friday and Saturday the windy spots will see gusts to around 25mph.

The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast precip to Tuesday at 6pm shows nothing over Archuleta County. Other forecast models expect minimal amounts over the mountains caused by isolated showers.
The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast precip to Tuesday at 6pm shows nothing over Archuleta County. Other forecast models expect minimal amounts over the mountains caused by isolated showers.

Next Wednesday and beyond… Moisture will gradually increase, the atmosphere will gradually become more unstable, and we’ll see a better chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

This is Euro ensemble 15-day precip.  It’s read to left to right and times are in Zulu.  Let’s start with the top graph. This is 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. Time period 1 indicates a chance for spotty light showers. Time period 2 indicates dry weather. Time period 3 indicates are more active weather pattern. The middle graph shows the mean and control 24-hour precip amounts. I pay most attention to the mean. Even during the more active periods, 24-hour amounts are low.  The bottom chart is the total precip for the mean and the control. Again, I pay most attention to the mean.  Precip is minimal until next Wednesday afternoon and then starts a gradual increasing trend.  Summary: I expect a slight chance for mountain showers until next Wednesday and then the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase.
This is Euro ensemble 15-day precip.  It’s read to left to right and times are in Zulu. 

Let’s start with the top graph. This is 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. Time period 1 indicates a chance for spotty light showers. Time period 2 indicates dry weather. Time period 3 indicates a more active weather pattern.

The middle graph shows the mean and control 24-hour precip amounts. I pay most attention to the mean. Even during the more active periods, 24-hour amounts are low. 

The bottom chart is the total precip for the mean and the control. Again, I pay most attention to the mean.  Precip is minimal until next Wednesday afternoon and then starts a gradual increasing trend. 

Summary: I expect a slight chance for mountain showers until next Tuesday and then the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase.

My next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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