Showers and thunderstorms winding down…

Impressive rainshower towards Pagosa Peak – Pic submitted by Dave Duquemin on 5/22/2023

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Tuesday – 23 May 2023 – 5:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 67, the low this morning was 37, and humidity bottomed out at 37% around noon.

*** Mark, who lives in a cold spot near Hatcher Lake, had a low of 31 this morning and some frost. As our relative humidity and dew points drop, we will see bigger diurnal differences between our high temps and low temps. Lately we’ve had a roughly 30 degree temp swing, but that will jump to 40 degrees as we dry out. ***

The peak wind at Stevens Field this afternoon was 10mph. Our peak wind this afternoon in O’Neal Park was 15mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May. Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
70	85 / 1984	32	15 / 1930

Precipitation summary… Most of the county got at least a little bit of precip yesterday.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from a 0.01” to 0.28”.*

Forecast discussion…

Satellite and lightning 2-hour loop this afternoon – There were quite a few strikes over Archuleta County again this afternoon. — *Satellite and lightning 2-hour loop this afternoon – There were quite a few lightning strikes over Archuleta County again this afternoon.*

Radar at 5pm this afternoon – A weakening cell is moving into western Archuleta County. A strong cell is moving towards the northeast and could impact the Trujillo/Pagosa Junction area in the next hour.

Highlights…

*** The cold spots will be near freezing each morning. ***

River flow…

San Juan River has dropped to nearly 2,100cfs this afternoon. As of this afternoon, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 16” of snow water equivalent (SWE). On 22 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 7,630cfs, an outflow of 3,200cfs, and rose 0.6 feet. Releases and inflows will start to even out, so I think we’re nearing the high point. Releases will continue to ramp up to 5,000cfs by 25 May and stay there for 21 days. They’ll start ramping back down around 14 Jun and plan to be back to 500cfs by 25 June. Here’s the link for more info: Navajo Dam Project Notices — *San Juan River flow has dropped to nearly 2,100cfs this afternoon. As of this afternoon, the Upper San Juan snotel still has around 16” of snow water equivalent (SWE).*

On 22 May Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 7,630cfs, an outflow of 3,200cfs, and rose 0.6 feet. Releases and inflows will start to even out, so I think we’re nearing the high point. Releases will continue to ramp up to 5,000cfs by 25 May and stay there for 21 days. They’ll start ramping back down around 14 Jun and plan to be back to 500cfs by 25 June. Here’s the link for more info: *Navajo Dam Project Notices*

Rest of today… The subtropical moisture plume will slowly weaken overnight. Clouds will clear out, moisture will decrease, and low temps will be a degree or two colder.

Temps… Lows tonight will range from the low 30s to low 40s.

Winds… Below 10mph for most of the county but isolated gusts to 30mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms this evening.

Wednesday through Sunday… We’re going to dry out. A more typical springtime dry, southwest flow pattern will set up. There will be a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Wednesday afternoon is our best chance for spotty precip, but I expect most of us to be dry.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s. *** The cold spots will be near freezing each morning. ***

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 10-20mph range. Friday and Saturday the windy spots could see gusts to 25mph.

*Euro precip during this period shows 0.08” near Pagosa and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Note: It’s convective showers and will be spotty. I think most of us will be dry during this period.*

My next post will be tomorrow, and I’ll include rain totals for the last 10 days.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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