Snowpack looks good for the West Slope but eastern Colorado could use a couple of big spring storms.
Monday – 1 May 2023 – 11:00am
April Summary…
The average low for April is 24 and the average high is 59. The record high of 81 occurred on 30 Apr 1931. The record low of -4 occurred on 1 Apr 1980. Precip averages 1.38″ in April with 6.3″ of snow – our third driest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.42″ of liquid equivalent and 44.8″ of snow.
How did we do?





*A couple of notes about this graphic: 1. There are inconsistencies in our historical data. 2. The location of our historical data moved around the Pagosa Springs area. Because of our terrain, just moving a mile or two in any direction results in significant differences. 3. I’m using an average from individual monthly CoCoRaHS totals that include at least 60% of the daily reports. This is not precise but gives us a good idea where we stand.*

Snowpack, Drought, River flow, and lake levels…


There are two good examples in this table of late season data getting skewed: Columbine Pass and Mancos. The Columbine Pass sensor is at 9,171ft elevation. It’s lower elevation results in most of its snowpack usually being melted by this time of year. It’s normally at 2.4″ snow water equivalent (SWE) on 30 Apr, but it currently has 33.7″ SWE, or 1,404% of average. Mancos is normally at 1.8″ SWE on 30 Apr, but it currently has 16.6″ SWE, or 922% of average.

Nearly half, 47%, of the western US is drought free. There has been a 9% improvement in the last month when 36% of the western US was drought free.


Navajo Reservoir is at 65.7% – an 11.6% improvement in the last month. The peak inflow to Navajo Reservoir so far this season has been 7,060cfs on 14 April. It has risen 28 feet since its low in late February!
There is still a lot of water locked up in the snowpack. I think lakes across much of the western US will continue to rise well into June.
May Outlook…
The average low for May is 30 and the average high is 68. The record high of 89 occurred on 30 May 1910. The record low of 8 occurred on 1 May 1967. Precip averages 1.26″ in May with 1.1″ of snow – our second driest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 2.05″ of liquid equivalent and 12.9″ of snow.

The precip outlook on the right indicates “equal chances” for average precip.

And what do we expect?
Arleen is the expert and this is what she expects…
Welcome to spring! May is our second driest month of the year as the polar front jet slowly slips north taking with it areas of low pressure and frontal systems. We’ll see a weak system the end of this week and another in the third week in May. There won’t be strong enough dynamics to give us significant precipitation. We’ll have average precipitation for the month. Temperatures will also be average as we stay under primarily zonal flow.
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!
And if you’re curious about us, check out this excellent video by Matt Martin. We are humbled and honored that he used his talent and time to spotlight Pagosa Weather!
- Shawn