Spotty afternoon showers through Thursday…

Cumulus cloud trying to grow over Pagosa Peak – Pic taken 5/2/2023 at 2:20pm

Cumulus cloud trying to grow over Pagosa Peak – Pic taken 5/2/2023 at 2:20pm

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Tuesday – 2 May 2023 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 73 – Just 2 degrees from declaring a winner in the 75 degree contest! The high so far this afternoon has been 65. The low this morning was 41. Our low was 33 at the southern end of O’Neal Park.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 22mph and this afternoon it was 21mph. Our peak wind this afternoon in O’Neal Park was 21mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6283 / 19472712 / 1967

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip was reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough is still to our west and moving towards us. So far shower and thunderstorm activity has been well ahead of the trough and to our east. Until the trough moves through, there is a slight chance for spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough is still to our west and moving towards us. So far shower and thunderstorm activity has been well ahead of the trough and to our east. Until the trough moves through, there is a slight chance for spotty showers and a thunderstorm or two.
Radar at 3pm this afternoon – There is nothing upstream on radar.  Showers and thunderstorms have developed well ahead of the trough to our east.
Radar at 3pm this afternoon – There is nothing upstream on radar.  Showers and thunderstorms have developed well ahead of the trough to our east.

Highlights…

*** A multi-day period of warm temps has increased run-off again.  Area streams are on the rise. ***

River flow…

San Juan River, top, peaked at 3,080cfs last night. That’s the highest so far this spring.  The Piedra River, bottom, peaked at 3,640cfs this morning. That’s the second highest it’s been this spring. On 30 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,819cfs, an outflow of 498cfs, and it rose 0.89 feet. On 1 May it had an inflow of 6,500 – the third highest this spring – and an outflow of 501cfs, and it rose 1 foot.
San Juan River, top, peaked at 3,080cfs last night. That’s the highest so far this spring.  The Piedra River, bottom, peaked at 3,640cfs this morning. That’s the second highest it’s been this spring.

On 30 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,819cfs, an outflow of 498cfs, and it rose 0.89 feet. On 1 May it had an inflow of 6,500 – the third highest this spring. It had an outflow of 501cfs and rose 1 foot.

Rest of today through Thursday… Upper level southwest flow has taken over as a slow moving low pressure system meanders around the CA and NV area. We’ll be on the eastern edge of that system and will see a few more clouds and a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two.

Temps… Tonight lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Wednesday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Thursday temps will be a little cooler with highs in the high 50s to high 60s and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon winds will peak around 20mph. Winds Thursday afternoon will be stronger with gusts in the 20-30mph range.

NBM total precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.03” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.25” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip so it will be spotty.  My expectations are low, but a few lucky folks could get a soaking. Lucky spots in the mountains above 10,500ft could get 1-3” of snow.
NBM total precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.03” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.25” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip so it will be spotty.  My expectations are low, but a few lucky folks could get a soaking. Lucky spots in the mountains above 10,500ft could get 1-3” of snow.
Euro 500mb vorticity is on the left and Euro forecast infrared satellite is on the right. Both are valid Thursday evening at 6pm. First question: Is there storm energy? 500mb is at 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall weather pattern. Vorticity is the spinning of air and often indicates areas favorable for clouds and precip. In this case the 500mb low is spinning over NV and causing fairly strong southwest flow over our area. Storm energy/vorticity is mostly confined around the low, but the diffluent southwest flow will cause instability.  Next question: Is there moisture? On the right, the forecast satellite gives us a good idea where the moisture and instability are expected. Much like today, there is some moisture in our area, but the best moisture is confined around the low. My take: The ingredients are weak and only support a few spotty showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. The easy part of the forecast is winds. Moderate to strong upper level southwest flow helps fuel gusty surface winds this time of year.
Euro 500mb vorticity is on the left and Euro forecast infrared satellite is on the right. Both are valid Thursday evening at 6pm.

First question: Is there storm energy? 500mb is at 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall weather pattern. Vorticity is the spinning of air and often indicates areas favorable for clouds and precip. In this case the 500mb low is spinning over NV and causing fairly strong southwest flow over our area. Storm energy/vorticity is mostly confined around the low, but the diffluent southwest flow will cause instability. 

Next question: Is there moisture? On the right, the forecast satellite gives us a good idea where the moisture and instability are expected. Much like today, there is some moisture in our area, but the best moisture is confined around the low.

My take: The ingredients are weak and only support a few spotty showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. The easy part of the forecast is winds. Moderate to strong upper level southwest flow helps fuel gusty surface winds this time of year.

Friday… A fast moving and weak ridge will move through. We’ll see occasional patches of clouds, especially in the afternoon, but should stay dry.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s, and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Gusts in the afternoon will be in the 20-30mph range.

Saturday and Sunday… Another weak trough will bring a few more clouds and a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s, and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Gusts each afternoon will be in the 15-25mph range.

My next forecast post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon