Cumulus cloud trying to grow over Pagosa Peak – Pic taken 5/2/2023 at 2:20pm
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Tuesday – 2 May 2023 – 4:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 73 – Just 2 degrees from declaring a winner in the 75 degree contest! The high so far this afternoon has been 65. The low this morning was 41. Our low was 33 at the southern end of O’Neal Park.
The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 22mph and this afternoon it was 21mph. Our peak wind this afternoon in O’Neal Park was 21mph.
*** The average last freeze is 31 May. Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 62 | 83 / 1947 | 27 | 12 / 1967 |
Precipitation summary… No measurable precip was reported in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
Highlights…
*** A multi-day period of warm temps has increased run-off again. Area streams are on the rise. ***
River flow…
On 30 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 5,819cfs, an outflow of 498cfs, and it rose 0.89 feet. On 1 May it had an inflow of 6,500 – the third highest this spring. It had an outflow of 501cfs and rose 1 foot.
Rest of today through Thursday… Upper level southwest flow has taken over as a slow moving low pressure system meanders around the CA and NV area. We’ll be on the eastern edge of that system and will see a few more clouds and a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two.
Temps… Tonight lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Wednesday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Thursday temps will be a little cooler with highs in the high 50s to high 60s and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Winds… Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon winds will peak around 20mph. Winds Thursday afternoon will be stronger with gusts in the 20-30mph range.
First question: Is there storm energy? 500mb is at 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall weather pattern. Vorticity is the spinning of air and often indicates areas favorable for clouds and precip. In this case the 500mb low is spinning over NV and causing fairly strong southwest flow over our area. Storm energy/vorticity is mostly confined around the low, but the diffluent southwest flow will cause instability.
Next question: Is there moisture? On the right, the forecast satellite gives us a good idea where the moisture and instability are expected. Much like today, there is some moisture in our area, but the best moisture is confined around the low.
My take: The ingredients are weak and only support a few spotty showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. The easy part of the forecast is winds. Moderate to strong upper level southwest flow helps fuel gusty surface winds this time of year.
Friday… A fast moving and weak ridge will move through. We’ll see occasional patches of clouds, especially in the afternoon, but should stay dry.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s, and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Winds… Gusts in the afternoon will be in the 20-30mph range.
Saturday and Sunday… Another weak trough will bring a few more clouds and a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.
Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s, and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.
Winds… Gusts each afternoon will be in the 15-25mph range.
My next forecast post will be on Thursday.
– Shawn
