Slight chance for showers Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons…

Standing lenticular clouds over our mountains this morning. Check out the satellite loop and description in my post to learn more about these interesting clouds. – Pic taken 4/30/2023

Standing lenticular clouds over our mountains this morning. Check out the satellite loop and description in my post to learn more about these interesting clouds. – Pic taken 4/30/2023

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Sunday – 30 Apr 2023 – 4:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 71 and this afternoon it was also 71. The low this morning was 33. Our low was 31 at the southern end of O’Neal Park.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 23mph and this afternoon it was 22mph. Our peak wind this afternoon in O’Neal Park was 22mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6281 / 19812619 / 1909

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip was reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop this morning – This is an interesting satellite loop from this morning.  There is a ridge across the Great Basin bringing upper level northwest flow into our region. Watch carefully to see that those clouds are hardly moving in our area.  The clouds are lee-side cirrus and altocumulus standing lenticular. Moderate to strong upper level flow perpendicular to our mountains and stable conditions above mountain-top level help develop those clouds above and downwind of the mountains. The clouds don’t move much but will continuously change shape.  Standing lenticular clouds indicate turbulence to pilots.  Note: The lead picture above was taken during this satellite loop. Those standing lenticular clouds show up in the satellite loop.
This is an interesting satellite loop from this morning.  There is a ridge across the Great Basin bringing upper level northwest flow into our region. Watch carefully to see that those clouds are hardly moving in our area. 

The clouds are lee-side cirrus and altocumulus standing lenticular. Moderate to strong upper level flow perpendicular to our mountains and stable conditions above mountain-top level help develop those clouds above and downwind of the mountains. The clouds don’t move much but will continuously change shape.  Standing lenticular clouds indicate turbulence to pilots. 

Note: The lead picture above was taken during this satellite loop. The standing lenticular clouds in the picture also show up in the satellite loop.

There is nothing significant on radar in our region this afternoon.

Highlights…

*** A multi-day period of warm temps has increased run-off again.  Area streams are on the rise. ***

River flow…

San Juan River, top, peaked at 2,250cfs last night.  The Piedra River, bottom, peaked at 2,790cfs this morning. Note that each of the last four peaks has been higher than the previous one.  That trend is likely to continue for the next few days. On 28 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 4,501cfs, an outflow of 497cfs, and it rose 0.68 feet. On 29 Apr it had an inflow of 4,786, an outflow of 498cfs, and rose 0.72 feet.
San Juan River, top, peaked at 2,250cfs last night.  The Piedra River, bottom, peaked at 2,790cfs this morning. Note that each of the last four peaks has been higher than the previous one.  That trend is likely to continue for the next few days.

On 28 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 4,501cfs, an outflow of 497cfs, and it rose 0.68 feet. On 29 Apr it had an inflow of 4,786, an outflow of 498cfs, and rose 0.72 feet.

Rest of today through Monday… Ridging and upper level northwest flow will continue to bring us fantastic spring weather. Occasional patches of clouds will move through, but we’ll have lots of sun and pleasant temps.

Temps… Lows tonight will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Tomorrow highs in the high 60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Winds… Tomorrow afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.

Tuesday through Thursday… The ridge will push to our east and upper level southwest flow will increase as a slow moving low pressure system meanders around the CA and NV area. We’ll be on the eastern edge of that system and will see a few more clouds and a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two.

Temps… Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Thursday temps will be a little cooler with highs in the high 50s to high 60s and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range. Winds Thursday afternoon will be a little stronger with gusts in the 20-25mph range.

NBM total precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.06” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip so it will be spotty.  My expectations are low, but a few lucky folks could get a soaking. Lucky spots in the mountains above 10,500ft could get 2-4” of snow.
NBM total precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.06” near Pagosa Springs and up to 0.30” in our mountains. This is all convective/showery precip so it will be spotty.  My expectations are low, but a few lucky folks could get a soaking. Lucky spots in the mountains above 10,500ft could get 2-4” of snow.

I plan to do the April Summary and May Outlook tomorrow. My next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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