Showers, flurries and thunder possible…

Northern Lights

Kathleen Lutz McFadden shot this awesome photo of the northern lights around 10:15pm last night. I was also hoping to photograph the lights, but around 10pm, I decided they weren’t going to happen and went to bed!

Monday – 24 April. 2023 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 56 and the low this morning was 33 degrees. Winds gusted to 22mph.

Precipitation summary: Precipitation started falling this morning…as of 8am, totals have ranged from a trace to 0.06. Lisa reported a half inch of snow up on HWY 160, NE of town. Looking at SNOWTEL reports and images from Wolf Creek Pass, it looks like our mountains received 3-5 inches. As of post time, I was seeing some flurries at our home about a mile north of Hatcher Lake.

Screenshot 2023 04 24 082526
Overnight precipitation ranged from a trace to 0.06 inches of liquid.
Screenshot 2023 04 24 082617
Snow totals this morning ranged from a trace to a half inch.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6276/ 1987269/ 1913
Screenshot 2023 04 24 074745
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY ABOVE 10000 FEET. Snow expected above 10000 feet. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
Screenshot 2023 04 24 091659
A low pressure and an associated cold front will give us a chance for precipitation from today through Wednesday. This will be a fairly dry system, so I don’t expect we will see much more than a tenth of an inch of rain.

Forecast discussion…

A passing short-wave ahead of an approaching low pressure from the Pacific NW has stirred up some showers and flurries this morning in the valley. In the mountains, it looks like 3-5 inches of snow fell overnight. The wave should move through around midday, leaving us with partly cloudy skies and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Look for a continued chance for snow, rain and a few thunderstorms from today-Wednesday. We could see a slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

StormTotalSnow 2
The latest snow forecast from Grand Junction NWS. Since we saw some flurries this morning and may do so tomorrow, I think they should have stayed with their 0-T forecast from yesterday.
Screenshot 2023 04 24 092629
The latest NWS 3-Day precipitation forecast for Pagosa Springs is 0.07 inches.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: A few light showers the rest of the morning with some flurries for those of you living around 8000 feet. Becoming partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 50’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph. A chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s. SW winds 15-25mph with gusts to 40mph. Chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day and rain/snow mix and snow in the evening. Snow levels dropping to below 7000 feet during the night, but very little precipitation.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 8000 feet: A few snow showers but little to no accumulation.

Mountains above 10,000ft: 5-10”

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph. A slight chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in the low 60’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs upper 50’s to low 60’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph. A slight chance for some scattered showers.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs upper 50’s to low 60’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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Mark Langford

Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford
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