Breezy and cool today – warmer this weekend – Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday…

Our little ephemeral creek came to life in the last week – Pics taken on 14 and 20 Apr

Our little ephemeral creek came to life in the last week – Pics taken on 14 and 20 Apr

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Thursday – 20 Apr 2023 – 12:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 52 and the low this morning was 24. Our low was 19 at the southern end of O’Neal Park.

Stevens Field wind data is back – yay! Their peak wind Tuesday afternoon was 43mph and Wednesday afternoon it was 47mph. Our peak wind Tuesday afternoon was 39mph and Wednesday afternoon it was 40mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6178 / 19892511 / 1941

Precipitation summary… A few spots got a few snowflakes yesterday but there was no measurable precip reported.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Upper level flow has switched to northwest, the jetstream has dipped to our south, and drier air is moving in. With the jetstream still in our “neighborhood”, winds will be gusty again this afternoon.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Upper level flow has switched to northwest, the jetstream has dipped to our south, and drier air is moving in. With the jetstream still in our “neighborhood”, winds will be gusty again this afternoon.

There is nothing significant on radar in our region this afternoon.

Important highlights…

*** Cooler temps have resulted in another lull in run-off. ***

River flow…

San Juan River, top, decreased to 1,030cfs this morning with the lower temps.  I added the arrows to highlight how temperature trends impact run-off this time of year. The Piedra River, bottom, dropped to 1,980cfs this morning. On 18 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 6,022cfs, an outflow of 298cfs, and it rose 1.06 feet. On 19 Apr it had an inflow of 5,657, an outflow of 301cfs, and rose 0.98 feet. It has risen 21 feet since its low at the end of February!
San Juan River, top, decreased to 1,030cfs this morning with the lower temps.  I added the arrows to highlight how temperature trends impact run-off this time of year. The Piedra River, bottom, dropped to 1,980cfs this morning.

On 18 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 6,022cfs, an outflow of 298cfs, and it rose 1.06 feet. On 19 Apr it had an inflow of 5,657, an outflow of 301cfs, and rose 0.98 feet. It has risen 21 feet since its low at the end of February!

Today through Sunday… Drier and more stable upper level northwest flow will take over as the next ridge tries to build over the western US. Patches of mid and high clouds will occasionally move through, but we’ll see lots of sun. There is a slight chance for scattered mountain showers Sunday afternoon. Afternoon winds will be strongest today but remain gusty each afternoon.

Temps… Today highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Friday Highs will be 50-60 and lows will be 20-30.  Saturday and Sunday will be closer to average with highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… This afternoon winds will gust 25-35mph. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons peaks will be in the 15-25mph range.

Monday and Tuesday… A system will develop to our northwest and move southeast into our area.  It won’t have much moisture or storm energy, but we’ll see more clouds, scattered showers, and a chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 9,000ft: a few snowflakes – lucky folks above 8,400ft could get up to a half inch

Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”

NBM total precip to late Tuesday evening shows 0.21” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.60” in our mountains.
NBM total precip to late Tuesday evening shows 0.21” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.60” in our mountains.

15-day outlook…

The pattern will get more active starting Monday, but I don’t see any big storms on the horizon. We’ll catch the tail end of systems as they scoot by to our north. It’s wind season, so most afternoons winds will gust into the 15-25mph range.

This is Euro ensemble 15-day total precip out to the evening of 4 May. It shows the Pagosa area getting 0.76” while much of northern and eastern Colorado get well over an inch. The forecast models are trending up for precip amounts.
This is Euro ensemble 15-day total precip out to the evening of 4 May. It shows the Pagosa area getting 0.76” while much of northern and eastern Colorado get well over an inch. The forecast models are trending up for precip amounts.

The black arrows indicate the general storm track. Northwest to southeast is not a favorable trajectory for us to get precipitation. I think we’ll catch the tail-end of a couple of systems as they miss us to the north. If the pattern dips a little farther south, we’ll get more. If it pushes farther north, we’ll hardly get anything.

My next post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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