Warmer this weekend – Scattered showers Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday…

A snowy morning here in Colorado Springs – Pic taken 4/22/2023

A snowy morning here in Colorado Springs – Pic taken 4/22/2023

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Saturday – 22 Apr 2023 – 11:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 53 and the low this morning was 28. Our low was 24 at the southern end of O’Neal Park.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 25mph. Our peak wind yesterday afternoon in O’Neal Park was 18mph.

*** The average last freeze is 31 May.  Temps can still drop below freezing into the third week of June with average lows remaining in the mid-30s. ***

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6176 / 1989258 / 1967

Precipitation summary… No measurable precip was reported in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The jet stream, red arrows, is flowing up and over a ridge, blue jagged line. Northwest flow is pushing some moisture across Colorado, but northwest flow is a dry flow for us.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The jet stream, red arrows, is flowing up and over a ridge, blue jagged line. Northwest flow is pushing some moisture across Colorado, but northwest flow is a dry flow for us.

There is nothing significant on radar in our region this afternoon.

Highlights…

*** Scattered showers, mountain snow above 9,000ft, and an isolated thunderstorm or two Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons. ***

River flow…

San Juan River, top, peaked at around 1,100cfs last night and has dropped below 1,000cfs this morning.  The Piedra River, bottom, peaked at almost 1,800cfs early this morning. On 20 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 4,962cfs, an outflow of 304cfs, and it rose 0.84 feet. On 21 Apr it had an inflow of 4,123, an outflow of 444cfs, and rose 0.65 feet.
San Juan River, top, peaked at around 1,100cfs last night and has dropped below 1,000cfs this morning.  The Piedra River, bottom, peaked at almost 1,800cfs early this morning.

On 20 Apr Navajo Reservoir had an inflow of 4,962cfs, an outflow of 304cfs, and it rose 0.84 feet. On 21 Apr it had an inflow of 4,123, an outflow of 444cfs, and rose 0.65 feet.

Today through Sunday… Drier and more stable upper level northwest flow has taken over our area. Patches of mid and high clouds will occasionally move through, but we’ll see lots of sun. There is a slight chance for scattered mountain showers Sunday afternoon.

Temps… Today highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s. Sunday temps will be closer to average with highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Saturday, and Sunday afternoons peaks will be in the 15-25mph range.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday… A system will develop to our northwest and move southeast into our area.  It won’t have much moisture or storm energy, but we’ll see more clouds, scattered showers, and a chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two. The best chance for showers is each afternoon.

Temps… Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Wednesday will be a little cooler with highs in the low to high 60s and lows in the low 20s to low 30s.

Winds… Monday and Tuesday afternoon gusts will be in the 15-25mph range. Winds will be a little weaker on Wednesday with afternoon gusts in the 15-20mph range.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 9,000ft: a few snowflakes – lucky folks above 8,400ft could get up to a half inch

Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”

NBM total precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.21” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.80” in our mountains.
NBM total precip to late Wednesday evening shows 0.21” for the Pagosa area and up to 0.80” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall to late Wednesday evening shows none in the Pagosa area and up to 5” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall to late Wednesday evening shows none in the Pagosa area and up to 5” in our mountains.

Thursday and Friday… The next ridge will build along the west coast, turn our flow more northwesterly, and dry things out. Occasional patches of mid and high clouds will move through, but we’ll see lots of fun.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Winds… Thursday afternoon winds will peak in the 15-20mph range. Friday afternoon winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

15-day outlook…

The pattern will get more active starting Monday, but I don’t see any big storms for us on the horizon. We’ll catch the tail end of systems as they scoot by to our north. It’s wind season, so most afternoons winds will gust into the 15-25mph range.

This is Euro ensemble 15-day total precip out to the evening of 6 May. It shows the Pagosa area getting 0.66”. The black arrows indicate the general storm track. Northwest to southeast is not a favorable trajectory for us to get precipitation. I think we’ll catch the tail-end of a couple of systems as they miss us to the north. If the pattern dips a little farther south, we’ll get more. If it pushes farther north, we’ll hardly get anything. It’s good to see the Front Range and eastern Colorado favored for precip. They need it!
This is Euro ensemble 15-day total precip out to the evening of 6 May. It shows the Pagosa area getting 0.66”.

The black arrows indicate the general storm track. Northwest to southeast is not a favorable trajectory for us to get precipitation. I think we’ll catch the tail-end of a couple of systems as they miss us to the north. If the pattern dips a little farther south, we’ll get more. If it pushes farther north, we’ll hardly get anything. It’s good to see the Front Range and eastern Colorado favored for precip. They need it!
This week’s drought map looks good for western Colorado, but eastern Colorado needs some moisture.  Thankfully the 15-day forecast models look encouraging for eastern Colorado!
This week’s drought map looks good for western Colorado, but eastern Colorado needs some moisture.  Thankfully the 15-day forecast models look encouraging for eastern Colorado!

Mark will take over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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