Here comes the wind, the snow and the cold!

Wind turbine

My wind turbine is ready to generate some great electricity today with potential 50mph wind gusts! It’s wonderful being a member of the POA Architectual Commitee and allowing a wind turbine only at our home! 🙂

Monday – 3 April. 2023 – 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 53 and the low this morning was 26 degrees. Humidity bottomed out at 16%. Winds gusted to 23 mph yesterday at a nearby remote sensor.

Precipitation summary: There was no precipitation to summarize!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5570/ 1959213/ 1975

Forecast discussion…

A deep trough and associated arctic cold front are currently to our northwest. We rarely see arctic air around here and it’s even more strange to see this happen in early April. Had this occurred in January, we could have seen highs only in the single digits and lows 20-30 degrees below zero! As the trough approaches this afternoon, it will be kicking up our winds to 20-30 mph with gusts to 50mph. Snow levels will rise to around 8500 feet today, so most precipitation will fall as rain/snow mix in the afternoon but will switch over to snow around sunset for elevations above 7500 feet and 9pm for elevations under 7500 feet as cold air begins to move in. Snow and wind will continue through the night with gusts to over 40mph along with blowing snow.

Tuesday will feel more like January than April, with highs struggling to reach freezing temperatures for most of our area. Snow showers will become more scattered after noon but will continue until around sunset along with a slight chance for thunderstorms. Once we clear out, look for potential record lows on Wednesday morning with single digits forecast. Fortunately, a gradual warm up will start on Thursday, with highs reaching the 50’s by Friday.

Advisories

For Pagosa Springs:

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 PM MDT THIS EVENING…


* WHAT…Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.

* WHERE…Debeque to Silt Corridor, Central Colorado River Basin
and San Juan River Basin.

* WHEN…From 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS…Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Tree limbs could be blown down.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

People, especially those with respiratory illnesses, heart
disease, the elderly, and children are recommended to stay
indoors and avoid prolonged outdoor exercise or heavy exertion
due to wind-blown dust.

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY ABOVE 8500 FEET…


* WHAT…Snow expected above 8500 feet. Total snow accumulations
of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph.

* WHERE…Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide, Northwest San
Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains.

* WHEN…From 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility, especially on
ridge tops. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree
damage. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could
cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

For Wolf Creek Pass:

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY…


* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 11
inches. Winds gusting as high as 80 mph.

* WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN…From 6 PM this evening to 9 PM MDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could
significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could
impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills as
low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
little as 30 minutes.

Screenshot 2023 04 03 082622
A deep trough and associated arctic cold front are currently to our northwest. As the trough approaches this afternoon, it will be kicking up our winds to 20-30 mph with gusts to 50mph.
StormTotalSnow GJT
The NWS is forecasting 2-4 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs from tonight through Tuesday.
Screenshot 2023 04 03 081641
The latest NWS model is now forecasting 3 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 9 inches for Wolf Creek and 1 inches of snow for Chama, NM from tonight through Tuesday.
Screenshot 2023 04 03 081454
Forecast wind gusts this afternoon and evening.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy this morning, becoming mostly cloudy with a chance for snow/rain showers in the late afternoon into the evening. Snow levels will be dropping, so expect all snow after sunset for 7500 feet and above and after 9pm for elevations under 7500 feet. Lows in the teens to 20’s and highs in the low 50’s. SW winds 25-35mph with gusts to 50mph.

Tonight and Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers, thunderstorms and blowing snow, becoming more scattered after noon. Lows in the teens to 20’s and highs only in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. SW winds 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph.

Snow totals from this afternoon through noon on Tuesday: 2-4 inches valley and 6-12 inches for the mountains.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the single digits and low teens and highs in the low to mid 30’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with lows in the low to mid-teens and highs in the low to mid 40’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with lows in the mid to upper 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 50’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

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