Snow showers, wind, a tiny chance for a thunderstorm, and cold!

Peak

A cloud obscured Pagosa Peak from this morning looks a lot better than yesterday afternoon’s dust obscured Pagosa Peak!

Tuesday – 4 April. 2023 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 54 and the low this morning was 23 degrees. Humidity bottomed out at 19%. Winds gusted to 36 mph yesterday at a nearby remote sensor, but Shawn reported a 44mph gust at their place. Wolf Creek only reported 2 inches of snow as of 6am, but they should see more during the day.

Precipitation summary: Overnight snow totals ranged from zero to 2.4 inches.

Screenshot 2023 04 04 083716

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5672/ 194322-8/ 1945

Forecast discussion…

The arctic front moved through around 4am this morning and finally brought some snow with it. All we saw yesterday afternoon and most of the evening was blowing dust! The trough is still to our west, so we will continue to see off and on snow showers during the day and possibly a thunderstorm thrown into the mix as well. Things should start winding down around sunset as this system moves through our area. Today will feel more like January than April, with highs struggling to reach freezing temperatures for most of our area. Once we clear out, look for potential record lows on Wednesday morning with single digits forecast. Fortunately, a gradual warm up will start on Thursday, with highs reaching the 50’s by Friday.

Advisories

For Wolf Creek Pass:

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING…

* WHAT…Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 9 inches.
Winds gusting as high as 75 mph. Winds will be decreasing in the
afternoon.

* WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet.

* WHEN…Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Very
strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. The cold wind
chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on
exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Screenshot 2023 04 04 085618
The cold front moved through around 4am this morning, but the trough is still to our west. Until it passes, look for a chance for snow showers and possibly some scattered thunderstorms today.
StormTotalSnow 1
The NWS is forecasting an inch or less snow for today in Pagosa Springs.
Screenshot 2023 04 04 084625
The latest NWS model is now forecasting 1 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 6 inches for Wolf Creek today.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of the day: Partly cloudy with a chance for snow showers, thunderstorms and blowing snow, becoming more scattered after noon. Highs only in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. SW winds 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph. We could see an additional inch of snow during the day in the valley and 4-8 inches for the mountains.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with lows in the single digits and low teens and highs in the low to mid 30’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with lows in the low to mid-teens and highs in the low to mid 40’s. SW winds 10-15mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny with lows in the upper teens to mid 20’s and highs in the low to mid 50’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Saturday-Sunday: Mostly sunny with lows in the mid to upper 20’s and highs in the mid to upper 50’s. SW winds 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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