Our next “Meet and Greet” will be tomorrow from 11am to 3pm in front of the San Juan Mercantile, at 524 San Juan Street. It should be a balmy 45 degrees, so please stop by and say “Hello”, or whatever you feel like saying. Please leave your tomatoes and snowballs at home! Photo by Shawn Prochazka
Friday – 10 Feb. 2023 – 9:45am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 32 and the low this morning was -1 degree. Humidity bottomed out at 22%. Winds at the airfield hit 21 mph yesterday.
Precipitation summary…There was no precipitation to summarize.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 41 | 56/ 1970 | 5 | -26/ 1989 |
Forecast discussion…
After a frosty morning with lows in the minus zeros and single digits, we should warm into the upper 30’s and low 40’s today under an abundance of sunshine. High pressure rules the weekend, along with a warming trend, (a good thing for our meet and greet on Saturday), as highs approach 50 degrees!
Some great news on the La Niña pattern we have endured for the past 3 winters…it’s about to go “poof”! The latest ENSO forecast is out, and we now have over an 80% chance for going into ENSO Neutral by next month and over a 50% chance for transitioning into El Niño by this fall.
Enjoy the weekend, because most of next week will be cloudy and snowy as two systems impact our area. The first low pressure will be sliding down California this weekend, then making a right turn across AZ and NM on Monday. As of this post, the track of this storm will stay south of us and I’m only expecting 1-2 inches of snow on Monday and early Tuesday for the valley. A slight wobble to the south and those totals move down…a slight wobble to the north and those totals rise. I should have a better handle on this system when I do my next post on Sunday morning.
The big player of next week starts impacting our weather on Tuesday afternoon as a trough and low pressure move into Nevada and Utah, then slowly move eastward. This will put us into a strong SW flow and give us a great chance for some hefty snow totals from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Snow forecast for next week:
Monday-Tuesday morning: 1-2 inches for the valley, but with highs in the upper 30’s and low 40’s on Monday, there will not be much accumulation. 5-10 inches for the mountains.
Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday night: 5-10 inches for the valley and 10-20 inches for the mountains.
5-Day Forecast…
The rest of today: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. NE winds 5-10mph.
Saturday-Sunday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper teens and highs in the low to mid 40’s. SW winds 5-10 mph.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s and lows in the teens.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. SW winds 10-15 with gusts to 20mph. Highs in the low to mid 30’s and lows in the teens. Snow will be ramping up in the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers…heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 20’s. SW winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 30mph.
Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.
-Mark Langford
2 Responses
Good morning,
I just wanted to say “Thank you” for being our local weather journalists. Each morning, I get my cup of coffee and check your daily forecast, webcams and the snow report on Wolf Creek. I enjoy your humor, photos and learning a bit about weather. You three do an excellent job!
Thanks Sharon!
Mark