A great weekend ahead, then lookout!

Our next “Meet and Greet” will be tomorrow from 11am to 3pm in front of the San Juan Mercantile, at 524 San Juan Street. It should be a balmy 45 degrees, so please stop by and say “Hello”, or whatever you feel like saying. Please leave your tomatoes and snowballs at home! Photo by Shawn Prochazka

Friday – 10 Feb. 2023 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 32 and the low this morning was -1 degree. Humidity bottomed out at 22%. Winds at the airfield hit 21 mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…There was no precipitation to summarize.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4156/ 19705-26/ 1989

Forecast discussion…

After a frosty morning with lows in the minus zeros and single digits, we should warm into the upper 30’s and low 40’s today under an abundance of sunshine. High pressure rules the weekend, along with a warming trend, (a good thing for our meet and greet on Saturday), as highs approach 50 degrees!

Screenshot 2023 02 10 070953
7am temperatures this morning. The lowest temperature I saw was -22 on the upper Piedra!

Some great news on the La Niña pattern we have endured for the past 3 winters…it’s about to go “poof”! The latest ENSO forecast is out, and we now have over an 80% chance for going into ENSO Neutral by next month and over a 50% chance for transitioning into El Niño by this fall.

Screenshot 2023 02 09 074629

Enjoy the weekend, because most of next week will be cloudy and snowy as two systems impact our area. The first low pressure will be sliding down California this weekend, then making a right turn across AZ and NM on Monday. As of this post, the track of this storm will stay south of us and I’m only expecting 1-2 inches of snow on Monday and early Tuesday for the valley. A slight wobble to the south and those totals move down…a slight wobble to the north and those totals rise. I should have a better handle on this system when I do my next post on Sunday morning.

Screenshot 2023 02 10 072336
The first low pressure will slide to our south on Monday, but we should still see some light snow from this system.

The big player of next week starts impacting our weather on Tuesday afternoon as a trough and low pressure move into Nevada and Utah, then slowly move eastward. This will put us into a strong SW flow and give us a great chance for some hefty snow totals from Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Screenshot 2023 02 10 081140
Our second storm starts impacting our weather on Tuesday afternoon. This one has the potential to drop some hefty snow totals by Wednesday night.

Snow forecast for next week:

Monday-Tuesday morning: 1-2 inches for the valley, but with highs in the upper 30’s and low 40’s on Monday, there will not be much accumulation. 5-10 inches for the mountains.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday night: 5-10 inches for the valley and 10-20 inches for the mountains.

Screenshot 2023 02 10 081618
The latest NBM model run is forecasting 8.6 inches of snow between Monday and Wednesday night, with most of the snow falling from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
gfs deterministic colorado total snow 10to1 6527200 1
The latest GFS model run is quite bullish for our snow totals from Monday-Wednesday. For now, I think it is over-estimating our snowfall, but it will be interesting to see how the model runs handle storm #2 in the upcoming days.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. NE winds 5-10mph.

Saturday-Sunday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper teens and highs in the low to mid 40’s. SW winds 5-10 mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. Highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s and lows in the teens.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers. SW winds 10-15 with gusts to 20mph. Highs in the low to mid 30’s and lows in the teens. Snow will be ramping up in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers…heavy at times. Highs in the mid to upper 20’s. SW winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 30mph.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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2 Responses

  1. Good morning,
    I just wanted to say “Thank you” for being our local weather journalists. Each morning, I get my cup of coffee and check your daily forecast, webcams and the snow report on Wolf Creek. I enjoy your humor, photos and learning a bit about weather. You three do an excellent job!

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