A quick shot of cold air, then a warming trend…

Cirrus

Some high-flying cirrostratus clouds drift by at post time...and no Chinese weather balloons in sight!

Wednesday – 8 Feb. 2023 – Noon

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 38 and the low this morning was 3 degrees. Humidity bottomed out at 25%. Winds at the airfield hit 10 mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…There was no precipitation to summarize.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4156/ 19705-26/ 1989
Screenshot 2023 02 08 105620
We have a trough approaching from the west and a cold front moving SE, to the northwest of us.

Forecast discussion…

As if our lows this morning in the valley were not cold enough (-5 at my place about a mile north of Hatcher Lake and -16 on the upper Piedra), we have a cold front moving in tonight that will drop our temps to where we were this morning, but with winds gusting to 30mph, will add more frigid fun to the mix! Highs will struggle to reach freezing for most areas tomorrow, even with an abundance of sunshine. Fortunately, this will be a “drive-by” front and temps will start to moderate by Friday. By this weekend we should be in the mid to upper 40’s.

Snow returns in a small way by Sunday evening and Monday of next week, then potentially ramps up on Wednesday as our next decent storm moves in. As of this post time, I’m thinking 3-5 inches of snow for the valley and 8-15 inches for the mountains.

Screenshot 2023 02 08 114905
How much snow the latest Euro model thinks we will see from next Wednesday’s storm.
Screenshot 2023 02 08 114936
How much snow the latest GFS model thinks we will see from next Wednesday’s storm.
Screenshot 2023 02 08 115013
How much snow the latest NBM model thinks we will see from next Wednesday’s storm.

Our next “Meet and Greet” will be this Saturday from 11am to 3pm in front of the San Juan Mercantile, at 524 San Juan Street. It should be a balmy 40 degrees, so please stop by and say “Hello”, or whatever you feel like saying. Please leave your tomatoes and snowballs at home!

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. A front moves through tonight and lows will drop into the single digits and single sub-zeros with winds gusting 20-30 mph out of the NW. Wind chills will drop to -10 to -15 below zero during the night. There is a slight chance for snow in the mountains tonight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold with highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and wind chills in the single digits to teen. Winds will be out of the north 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30mph. Winds will gust to over 40mph for the mountains and wind chills will drop to -15 to -25.

Friday: Mostly sunny with lows the single digits and single sub-zeros and highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s.

Saturday-Sunday: Partly cloudy with lows in the low to upper teens and highs in the low to mid 40’s. Turning mostly cloudy on Sunday afternoon with a slight chance for snow showers in the evening.

Monday: Partly cloudy with a chance for snow showers and snow/rain mix. Little to no accumulation expected.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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