After a preview of spring, its back to winter!

Meet Greet

We had a wonderful time yesterday meeting so many of you who follow this page! From 11am-3pm, we only saw a few minutes when there were not people visiting or wanting more information on our weather or how they could become COCORAHS reporters. Thanks again to the San Juan Mercantile for letting us set up our tent in their parking lot!

Sunday – 12 Feb. 2023 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 49 and the low this morning was 19 degrees. Humidity bottomed out at 12%. Winds at the airfield hit 7 mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…There was no precipitation to summarize.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4259/ 19576-13/ 1966
310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring our upcoming snow storm!

Winter Weather Advisory for Wolf Creek Pass:

Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- 926 AM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM MST TUESDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains above 10000 feet. * WHEN…From 5 AM Monday to 2 AM MST Tuesday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…A second storm system is expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, bringing another round of heavy snow to the region.

Winter Storm Watch, which includes Pagosa Springs:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 209 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 COZ009-012-017-018-021>023-UTZ028-131100- /O.NEW.KGJT.WS.A.0002.230214T1200Z-230216T0000Z/ Grand and Battlement Mesas-West Elk and Sawatch Mountains- Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River- Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin- La Sal and Abajo Mountains- Including the cities of Crested Butte, Taylor Park, Marble, Ridgway, Glade Park, Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Cortez, Dove Creek, Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Pagosa Springs, and Monticello 209 PM MST Sun Feb 12 2023 …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON… * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE…Portions of southwest and west central Colorado and southeast Utah. * WHEN…From Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

A second day to sample spring-like conditions before winter returns tomorrow!

The first low pressure will be sliding down into northern Baja California, then making a right turn across AZ and NM on Monday. The track of this low has moved slightly closer to us, so I have nudged up snow totals for Monday and Monday night to reflect the new track. With another relatively warm day ahead on Monday and snow levels dancing around 7500 feet, there is a good chance for a snow/rain mix below 7500 feet during the day on Monday for downtown, with only light accumulations for everyone due to highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s. By sunset, the snow level should drop below 7000 feet and we should all just be getting snow for Monday night and Tuesday morning.

As the first storm exits on Tuesday morning, the bigger system will start quickly moving into our area by the middle of the day on Tuesday. Look for wind and snow to start ramping up in the afternoon making travel very difficult in Pagosa Springs and nearly impossible at Wolf Creek Pass. Watches and Warnings have not been issued yet, but I would imagine by Monday we will see plenty issued by the NWS.

Look for continued snow on Wednesday, with much colder temperatures as a front moves through our area. By the afternoon, snow will start tapering off, leading to lows on Thursday diving back below zero and single digits.

More snow arrives on Sunday of next week and as of this post, most of that week (19-25) may see continued chances for snow.

Shawn takes over tomorrow…he’ll have his hands full!

Screenshot 2023 02 12 080257
While the first low pressure will slide to our south over NM on Monday, but we should still see 2-4 inches of snow from this system.
Screenshot 2023 02 12 080435
Our second storm starts impacting our weather on Tuesday afternoon. This one has the potential to drop some hefty snow totals by Wednesday night.

Snow forecast:

Monday-Tuesday morning: 

Under 7500 feet: Rain/snow mix on Monday with very little accumulation during the day as highs rise to the low 40’s. 0.10-0.20 of rain or liquid equivalent. By sunset, the snow level should drop below 7000 feet and 1-2 inches of snow could fall overnight.

7500-8500 feet:

2-4 inches of snow, but with highs in the upper 30’s and low 40’s on Monday, there will not be much accumulation during the day. 7-12 inches for the mountains.

Tuesday morning-Wednesday night: 6-12 inches for the valley and 2-3 feet for the mountains.

Screenshot 2023 02 12 075658
The latest NBM model run is forecasting 10.9 inches of snow between Monday and Wednesday night for Pagosa Springs and 13.4 inches for Chama, NM, with most of the snow falling from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Screenshot 2023 02 12 090717
The latest GFS model run continues to be the maximum outlier for our snow totals from Monday-Wednesday, but I post it to show that there is a slight chance we could see snow totals running this high during the period.

5-Day Forecast…

The rest of today: Partly cloudy with highs in the mid 40’s to low 50’s. SW winds 5-10mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow showers 7500 feet and above and a rain/snow mix under 7500 feet until sunset. Highs in the upper 30’s to low 40’s and lows in the teens. There is also a chance for a few thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, windy, with moderate to heavy snow showers. Snowfall will be ramping up in the afternoon and evening. SW winds 15-25 with gusts approaching 40mph. Blowing snow will make traveling a real challenge in Pagosa Springs and almost impossible at Wolf Creek with winds gusting to 50mph up there. Highs in the low to mid 30’s and lows in the teens.

Wednesday: Cloudy with snow showers…mainly in the morning, winding down in the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 20’s. SW winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20mph.

Thursday-Friday: Mostly sunny with lows -single digits to low single digits and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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