Dry for a while…

Frosted trees at Wolf Creek – Pic taken 1/31/2023

Frosted trees at Wolf Creek – Pic taken 1/31/2023

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Tuesday – 31 Jan 2023 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 34. The low this morning was 18. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 22mph and today it was 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4058 / 19863-35 / 1917

Precipitation summary… Wolf Creek ended up with 12”. Most of us got less than an inch in the valley.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports from this morning ranged from zero to 1”. Hillary was the snow lottery winner near Chromo.  Most of these reports were done around 8am so a few locations probably added a little more.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports from this morning ranged from zero to 1”. Hillary was the snow lottery winner near Chromo.  Most of these reports were done around 8am so a few locations probably added a little more.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – I circled what’s left of the moisture in green. There isn’t much and it’s decreasing.  The low will stay well to our south. We’re going to clear out tonight which will lead to a cold morning with patchy fog.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – I circled what’s left of the moisture in green. There isn’t much and it’s decreasing.  The low will stay well to our south. We’re going to clear out tonight which will lead to a cold morning with patchy fog.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Rest of Today… A few light snowshowers are hanging on over the mountains. They’ll slowly diminish through the evening and clouds will clear out overnight.

Patchy fog will form in low-lying areas tonight.

Lows tonight will range from -10 to +10. 

Wednesday through Sunday… Ridging will take over and give us lots of sun and dry weather. We’ll see a gradual warming trend with temps near average by Thursday.

Wednesday high temps will range from the low to high 30s and lows will range from -5 to 15.

Thursday through Sunday highs will range from the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will range from 0 to 20.

Winds will peak around 10mph each afternoon out of the southwest.

Sunday night through Monday… I’m tracking our next potential weather system. Right now it looks pretty weak, but there’s plenty of time for that to change.

Euro ensemble precip on the left and GFS ensemble precip on the right for Pagosa Springs to Monday at 11pm – The Euro expects 0.13” while the GFS expects 0.14”.  This would be roughly 1.3” and 1.4” of snow.
Euro ensemble precip on the left and GFS ensemble precip on the right for Pagosa Springs to Monday at 11pm – The Euro expects 0.13” while the GFS expects 0.14”.  This would be roughly 1.3” and 1.4” of snow. Right now these look like reasonable forecasts to me.

We have determined that the 5-day forecast graphic is taking too much of our time and doesn’t add much value.  We’ll include temps and significant winds in the forecast discussion above. 

My next post will be on Thursday. I plan to get the January summary and February outlook posted tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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