Except for the Arkansas River drainage, snowpack is in good shape.
Wednesday – 1 Feb 2023 – 9:00am
January Summary…
The average low for January is 2 and the average high is 37. The record high of 59 occurred on 1 January 1981. The record low of -42 occurred on 13 January 1963. Precip averages 2.08″ in January with 30.4″ of snow – our snowiest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.67″ of liquid equivalent and 76.1″ of snow.
How did we do?





*A couple of notes about this graphic: 1. There are inconsistencies in our historical data. 2. The location of our historical data moved around the Pagosa Springs area. Because of our terrain, just moving a mile or two in any direction results in significant differences. 3. I’m using an average from individual monthly CoCoRaHS totals that include 60-70% of the daily reports. This is not precise but gives us a good idea where we stand.*

Snowpack and Drought…


As we get into the second half of the season, I start paying more attention to that last column. If no more snow fell – boooo hissss! – the Upper San Juan would finish at 77% of its season average and the Wolf Creek Summit would finish at 68%. Thankfully we’ve got more than two months to get the rest of that snow!

February Outlook…
The average low for February is 9 and the average high is 42. The record high of 60 occurred on 27 February 1988. The record low of -39 occurred on 1 February 1916. Precip averages 2.02″ in February with 23.1″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.3″ of liquid equivalent and 68.7″ of snow.

The precip outlook on the right indicates “equal chances” for near average precip.

And what do we expect?
Arleen is the expert and this is what she thinks…
The waters in the Pacific equatorial waters continue to warm trending towards to a Neutral ENSO pattern. A neutral pattern means we should see the polar front jet migrate south and see regular lows, frontal systems, and SNOW move through our area every 4 to 10 days. At the same time the MJO favorable enhanced area continues to move around the globe. It should arrive in our area the third week in February. The first two weeks of February we’ll have a couple of systems move through with lighter snow amounts. But the last two weeks of February, I expect a few good systems with impressive snow amounts. February will have above average snow.
A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.
Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!
And if you’re curious about us, check out this excellent video by Matt Martin. We are humbled and honored that he used his talent and time to spotlight Pagosa Weather!
- Shawn
3 Responses
You all are very impressive. Been following you for a while since we’ll be moving there to hang with the new grandson. Seems you are always spot on. The other weather forecasts seem to be standing in right field watching balls fly over their heads and you all take the mound and pitch shutouts. Great service for the community.
Wow…y’all are incredible!!
Thanks Jeff!