Pagosa Peak at sunset last night – Pic taken 1/29/2023
If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!
Monday – 30 Jan 2023 – 10:15am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 36. The low this morning was 11. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 10mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 40 | 58 / 1986 | 2 | -27 / 1949 |
Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the valley and Wolf Creek didn’t report any new snow.
As I type at 9am, it’s snowing very lightly in the upper Piedra area and Wolf Creek web cams show pretty good snow.
Forecast discussion…
Infrared satellite displays temperatures. Most of that blue north of the blue line indicates cold surface temps.
Today and Tuesday… A complicated pattern has set up with a low that will track well to our south and a weakening trough to our north that will fall apart as it slowly moves south. We’ll be in the middle in split flow which is not conducive to us getting precip. The limited moisture will get squeezed out over us, but my expectations are low.
Mostly light snow will fall on and off until around noon Tuesday. The best chance for snow is this afternoon to tomorrow morning. Scattered snowshowers will linger over the mountains into tomorrow afternoon.
High temps will range from around 30 to the mid-30s. Lows tonight will range from the mid-teens to mid-20s. Tomorrow night will be 10 degrees colder because the clouds will clear out.
Winds this afternoon will peak at 15-20mph out of the southwest. Winds tomorrow afternoon will peak 10-15mph out of the southwest.
My snowfall forecast…
Valley near town: 0-2”
Valley closer to the mountains 1-3”
Mountains: 6-12”
Wednesday through Sunday… Ridging will take over and give us lots of sun and dry weather. We’ll see a gradual warming trend with temps near average by Friday.
Highs will range from the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will range from the single digits to teens.
Winds will peak around 10mph each afternoon out of the southwest.
Monday and beyond… The weather pattern will get more active. It’s too early to trust the details.
We have determined that the 5-day forecast graphic is taking too much of our time and doesn’t add much value. We’ll include temps and significant winds in the forecast discussion above.
I’ll do a quick Facebook post tomorrow morning and a more thorough post later in the day.
– Shawn
4 Responses
Is Santa on vacation here? Never knew he was a skier.
Good eye Bill! I had to get a screen capture as soon as I saw him!
I compliment you guys on this service, I find it very valuable. Thanks. I was wondering if you would be able to put in your daily forecasts, or at least periodically, some references as to where we are as to percent of normal of our current snow season.
Thanks
Ernie OToole
Hello Ernie and thanks for the suggestion! In my monthly summary posts I include that for Wolf Creek but haven’t been doing it for Pagosa Springs. The Pagosa Springs historical data leaves a lot to be desired. Also, unlike Wolf Creek which is a single point, to do it for Pagosa Springs, we have use multiple points. I like your suggestion and will start doing it but I’ll have to use an average of CoCoRaHS reports. It won’t be exact but it will be in the ballpark. – Shawn