Off and on light snow through tomorrow morning…

Pagosa Peak at sunset last night – Pic taken 1/29/2023

Pagosa Peak at sunset last night – Pic taken 1/29/2023

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Monday – 30 Jan 2023 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 36. The low this morning was 11. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday afternoon was 10mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4058 / 19862-27 / 1949

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the valley and Wolf Creek didn’t report any new snow.

As I type at 9am, it’s snowing very lightly in the upper Piedra area and Wolf Creek web cams show pretty good snow.

Wolf Creek cam at 9am
Wolf Creek cam at 9am

Forecast discussion…

Infrared satellite this morning – The trough has pretty much stalled to our north and is falling apart.  The low is off the southern CA coast and will track well to our south.  There isn’t much moisture associated with either feature. The low will push a little more moisture into our area later today and tonight.  Infrared satellite displays temperatures. Most of that blue north of the blue line indicates cold surface temps.
Infrared satellite this morning – The trough has pretty much stalled to our north and is falling apart.  The low is off the southern CA coast and will track well to our south.  There isn’t much moisture associated with either feature. The low will push a little more moisture into our area later today and tonight. 
Infrared satellite displays temperatures. Most of that blue north of the blue line indicates cold surface temps.
Radar is morning – Radar is picking up scattered areas of light precip across the region.
Radar is morning – Radar is picking up scattered areas of light precip across the region.

Today and Tuesday… A complicated pattern has set up with a low that will track well to our south and a weakening trough to our north that will fall apart as it slowly moves south. We’ll be in the middle in split flow which is not conducive to us getting precip. The limited moisture will get squeezed out over us, but my expectations are low.

Mostly light snow will fall on and off until around noon Tuesday. The best chance for snow is this afternoon to tomorrow morning. Scattered snowshowers will linger over the mountains into tomorrow afternoon.

High temps will range from around 30 to the mid-30s. Lows tonight will range from the mid-teens to mid-20s.  Tomorrow night will be 10 degrees colder because the clouds will clear out.

Winds this afternoon will peak at 15-20mph out of the southwest. Winds tomorrow afternoon will peak 10-15mph out of the southwest.

My snowfall forecast…

Valley near town: 0-2”

Valley closer to the mountains 1-3”

Mountains: 6-12”

NWS snowfall forecast indicates 1-2” for Pagosa and 8-12” in our mountains.
NWS snowfall forecast indicates 1-2” for Pagosa and 8-12” in our mountains.

Wednesday through Sunday… Ridging will take over and give us lots of sun and dry weather. We’ll see a gradual warming trend with temps near average by Friday.

Highs will range from the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will range from the single digits to teens.

Winds will peak around 10mph each afternoon out of the southwest.

Monday and beyond… The weather pattern will get more active. It’s too early to trust the details.

Euro ensemble snowfall for Pagosa Springs – This shows today’s weak system, then a stretch of dry weather, then another weak system around the 6th and 7th, and another system 12-14 Feb. It all adds up to 8” over the 15-day period. I’d like to see double or triple that! That last system is showing potential but that’s way too far out to get excited.
Euro ensemble snowfall for Pagosa Springs – This shows today’s weak system, then a stretch of dry weather, then another weak system around the 6th and 7th, and another system 12-14 Feb. It all adds up to 8” over the 15-day period. I’d like to see double or triple that! That last system is showing potential but that’s way too far out to get excited.

We have determined that the 5-day forecast graphic is taking too much of our time and doesn’t add much value.  We’ll include temps and significant winds in the forecast discussion above. 

I’ll do a quick Facebook post tomorrow morning and a more thorough post later in the day.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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4 Responses

  1. I compliment you guys on this service, I find it very valuable. Thanks. I was wondering if you would be able to put in your daily forecasts, or at least periodically, some references as to where we are as to percent of normal of our current snow season.

    Thanks
    Ernie OToole

    1. Hello Ernie and thanks for the suggestion! In my monthly summary posts I include that for Wolf Creek but haven’t been doing it for Pagosa Springs. The Pagosa Springs historical data leaves a lot to be desired. Also, unlike Wolf Creek which is a single point, to do it for Pagosa Springs, we have use multiple points. I like your suggestion and will start doing it but I’ll have to use an average of CoCoRaHS reports. It won’t be exact but it will be in the ballpark. – Shawn

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